As is usually the case in boxing, the first round of the new floating exchange rate was “study”, with the contestants trying not to risk too much and see how the rival is accommodated. In financial jargon, this waiting time is called “Price Discovery” and that is what is characterizing these First post -stock days.
It was noticed since last Friday In trade -special in the sectors that handle imported supplies – where many suppliers left suspense your price lists Until seeing what value the exchange rate is stabilized. And others who had readjusted their prices above 20% – which implied a dollar near the band’s roof – did not have much demand for their product.
In the financial market, all were reasons for celebration for the Government, which did not hide its relief. As expected, the various exchange rates tend to the midpoint of the band, which leaves a first vision regarding who the winners and who the losers of the new scheme were.
It is clear that The first winner is the Central Bank itselfthat Monday reported “Without intervention” After Friday with its record of US $ 398 million sold. It is, from the point of view of the government, a powerful signal to the market in the sense that the bleeding of reserves that was being lived for two months.
Since the agreement signed with the International Monetary Fund allows that the BCRA intervenes even inside the band When situations of unusual volatility are given, some expectation had been generated that Santiago Bausili He could use his new dollar wallet to mark the level at which he intended to stabilize parity. However, convergence occurred without reservations.
Between the Blue A Loss and the New Rulo
The first place among the losers is for The retailers who bought the Blue last Friday at $ 1,365. After the release of the stocks, the ticket was quoted at $ 1,230 in the main square entities, which implies that they suffered a loss of instant capital of 9.8%.
For bankruptcy who bought the dollar in their MEP version, the logic option would now be to buy at the exchange rate of the banks, which is cheaper. Who on Friday had paid $ 1,333 were found that this operation made them lose 7.7%. However, There was a comfort for the fastest: taking advantage of the fact that the “parking” was eliminated in the bond operation, it remained Margin to make a “rulo” Consisting of buying at the bank contribution and then selling at the MEP, with a small gain -which at a time of the day became 3% and then it was narrowing.
Analysts expect that the possibility of doing that business will end very quickly, due to the inexorable arbitration: the MEP will tend to the same value as the banking dollar precisely due to the increase in the offer that arises from the aforementioned “rulo”.
The “counted with liquidation” also falls strongly, although it is expected to maintain His traditional spred above the MEP -In market calm situations is usually at 1%- Since this cost is the price that investors are willing to pay to leave foreign exchange in a bank account abroad.
Among the winners, the biggest celebrations – at least for now – are among whom They had protected themselves from an official exchange rate, whose price compared to 11%jumped. One of those tools had been The Linked Dollar Bonus: Even though the title has a negative rate of 1.98%, it would also compensate for investors if the wholesale dollar is maintained by June over $ 1,110. Although the most enthusiastic in the Government talk about a collapse of the dollar when agriculture currencies begin to enter, most analysts believe that the price is most likely that the price is stabilized in a value not less than $ 1,200.
Milei hurries to the field
In the plane of foreign tradethe foreseeable happened: Importers were increasing the operation -11% on the first day- while exporters improved income. In the case of those of the agricultural sector that received the exchange rate “Blend” -which until last Friday was located at $ 1,128-, there was a limited improvement. At the moment what they will pocket for their sales will be 6.2% higher than last week.
By the way it was an effect that everyone gave for a discounted, and that is why in recent weeks a Importers for advancing purchases and ensuring a stock, while in the field the reverse phenomenon was given and exports slowed down, even when there are still 7 million tons of soybeans of the previous harvest saved in the silobolsas.
And, as always, the big question in the market is whether with the dollar level that producers were seen on Monday, they will see an attraction for sale or if they will await a higher exchange rate. The President Javier Milei He recalled that the temporary reduction of withholdings -which in January fell from 33% to 26% for soybeans- maintains its end date in June, So it is convenient not to delay sales.
The president’s statement generated criticism among the producers, who considered those statements as a pressure similar to the one they suffered during the Peronist efforts and that were dedicated throughout the day to question the liberal vocation of Milei.
They are those same producers who reacted offended when last February from the government itself they gave them the suggestion that the relatively high prices of the international market had to be taken to sell all the soy and place the weights to “make Carry Trade”, taking advantage of the high rate.
THE NEW SOY ACCOUNT
In any case, the truth is that in the field they are moments of remakeing the accounts. For seasonal reasons, experts give a discounted An increase in liquidationssince the thick harvest is being lifted and there is Logistic difficulties For the collection.
In addition, at this time of the year they are overcoming financial obligations of producers who had taken financing to cope with the moments of drought.
There is no consensus among agricultural business experts on what would be the ideal price to sell. The key factor to consider is that, as well as producers have dollarized income, They also have costs that are governed by the dollar, such as urea, herbicides and machinery. That is, not necessarily a very high dollar implies an improvement in profitability.
Until last week, the 25% gap between the official exchange rate and the “counted with Liqui” hit the agricultural business equation. Once the retentions were discounted, the dollars are liquidated the official change and then repurchased in the parallel, the result was that the producer barely managed to retain 62% of the international price that quotes in Chicago. Now, that exchange difference between the official change and the CCL compressed, so that what is left to the producer is 70% of the Chicago price.
Among the factors that can encourage sale, in addition, is the international factor, since The “Trump effect” For the tariff dispute it is hitting raw material prices. As the Asian market is the main soy buyer and its derivatives, there could be a bearish pressure on prices. In fact, months ago, agricultural sector consultants try to convince – not very successful – producers to ensure the price before the perspective at the future.
The one pressed for the rates
There is still some uncertainty about how the rates market will evolve in pesos, now that the freezing of the broad monetary base was officially abandoned.The analysts, after Friday’s ads, had suggested that there should be a rise of rates to Rearm the Carry Trade and ensure an attraction to investments in national currency so that there is no excessive pressure on the roof of the new band.
A report of the SBS Fund Manager affirmed that in the context of relaxation of exchange restrictions “this will imply a greater rate of increase in Debt stock in treasure pesos. “
For its part, the consultant ANALYTICS forecasts that “Credit will be more expensiveeither by rise of bank lace or by an increase in the interest rate. “
The first effect was seen in the remuneration to the savers of fixed term, With the National Bank taking the lead: it took the annual nominal rate from 29.5% to 37%. And the decision was interpreted not only as a response to the new exchange scheme, but also to the surprising inflationary rebound after 3.7% left by the March CPI.
However, from the government they implied that they have the expectation of a medium -term fall. For example, Felipe Núñezone of the ideologues of the “the three anchors”, said: “With the recapitalization of the BCRA and the new exchange scheme, it is expected that real and nominal rates strongly compress.”
From that point of view, the new exchange band should dissipate fears to a sharp devaluation -which It was what the futures market reflected last week– And therefore coverage rates should reflect that New stability scenario. In addition, the expectation is that sovereign bonds upload their quotation, thus leading to a fall in the country risk index.
But, for the moment, that scenario of decline is to be seen. In fact, the futures market showed increases in contracts until June, with rates falls for the second semester. The position to October – the first after the legislative elections – fell to a price of $ 1,410. Implies an expectation of 17% dollar rise accumulated over a period of six months dyed by the electoral campaign.
