The financial market follows on Monday (24) the disclosure of the Focus Bulletin, the first after the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) to raise the Selic rate to 14.25% per year. The Central Bank’s weekly report brings the projections of economists for inflation, GDP, exchange and interest, serving as a thermometer of sector expectations. Investors assess whether the Copom’s decision influenced estimates and awaits signals about possible monetary policy adjustments in the coming months.
In the United States, the agenda includes industry purchase managers (PMI) rates for March, released at 10:45 am. The numbers measure the activity level of these sectors and are closely monitored to evaluate the trajectory of the American economy. Stronger data can reinforce high interest bets longer, while weaker numbers can feed the expectation of Federal Reserve cuts (Fed).
Agenda
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad participates as a speaker of the event Rumos 2025, promoted by Valor Econômico, at 9am. At 14h, he meets with José Velloso Dias Cardoso, executive president of the Brazilian Association of Machinery and Equipment Industry (ABIMAQ). Then, at 3 pm, he has a meeting with Guilherme Noronha, president of the Brazilian Association of Telesservices (ABT).
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At 2:45 pm, Raphael Bostic, from Atlanta Fed, makes a speech, followed by Andrew Bailey, from Banco da England, at 3 pm. Later, at 4:10 pm, it is the turn of Michael Barr, Fed’s director, to talk.
Brazil
8:25 am – Focus (weekly)
USA
10:45 am – Industry PMI (March)
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10:45 am – Services PMI (March)
International
Protection
The US Department of Justice seeks to protect Donald Trump from civil proceedings that hold him responsible for the attack on the capitol on January 6, 2021. Lawyers asked Judge Amit Mehta to replace Trump with the government in the dispute, claiming that he acted within his presidential functions. The measure contradicts the position of the Biden government, which argued that Trump did not officially act during the turmoil. Trump denies the accusations and asks for immunity, while the lawsuits follow under judicial analysis.
Smuggling
The shot in the price of eggs in the US led to increased smuggling of the product from Mexico, with seizures on the border growing 36% in the current fiscal year. In some regions of Texas, the jump was 54%, and in San Diego, the cases more than doubled. Many consumers cross the border to buy eggs, as while in the US the average dozen price reached $ 5.90 ($ 33.70), in Mexico the value is below $ 2 ($ 11.40). High in the US is due to an outbreak of avian flu that reduced the production of laying chickens.
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Economy
Simulations
More than 40 million workers simulated the new payroll loans for private enterprise employees, from Friday (21) until 18h this Sunday (23), said the Ministry of Labor and Employment. In all, the simulations totaled 40,180,384. With the potential to offer less expensive credit to up to 47 million people, the new sport came into force last Friday.
Growth of Brazil
Brazil’s growth this year will be vulnerable to the external scenario, but sectors such as agribusiness and oil should boost the economy, according to World Bank’s Mark V. Ciliatto Leite during a panel mediated by Paulo Leme. The event, organized by the XP Private Bank and the University of Miami, featured economists such as Caio Megale (XP) and Alberto Ramos (Goldman Sachs).
Brazil faces a vicious circle of high tax burden, low investment in infrastructure and negative public savings, said Aloísio Araújo, economist at FGV and Impa, during an event at the University of Miami sponsored by XP. He pointed out that any economy obtained by the government with reforms ends up being consumed by new expenses, such as the increase in the minimum wage. In addition, he pointed out the difficulty of maintaining a consistent inflation target in a fragile fiscal scenario, noting that countries like Chile and Türkiye face similar challenges.
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Income tax
A Nexus survey revealed that 82% of users who have manifested themselves on social networks about the income tax exemption bill support the measure, while 18% oppose. The analysis was made about the 450 most engaged posts on X, Facebook, Instagram and Youtube platforms. Of these posts, 46% are opinionated, 34% of politicians, and 54% are neutral, especially the press, which represents 78% of neutral posts.
Health
The Federal Council of Medicine (CFM) and the Brazilian Medical Association (AMB) criticized the publication of a resolution of the Federal Council of Pharmacy (CFF) that allows pharmacists to prescribe stripe medicines. The CFM claims that prescription is an exclusive competence of doctors, professionals who have the necessary training for diagnosis and definition of treatments. The CFF, on the other hand, argues that the prescription is supported by Law No. 13,021 of 2014, which guarantees pharmacists the responsibility of monitoring the treatment and pharmacotherapeutic profile of patients. The measure comes into force within 30 days.
Policy
Negative perception
An ipsos-Ipec survey reveals that the fight against inflation, the control of public spending and public safety are the areas of the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) government with greater negative perception among Brazilians. In inflation, 57% of respondents negatively evaluate management, while in the fiscal area, 53% consider it bad or terrible. In public safety, 50% of participants have a negative view. Nevertheless, sectors such as education, hunger and environment have a more positive perception, but without reaching a positive balance. The survey was conducted between March 7 and 11, with 2,000 respondents.
Security PEC
The Minister of Institutional Relations, Gleisi Hoffmann, announced that the PEC of Public Security will be sent to Congress in April 2025. The project, proposed by Justice Minister Ricardo Lewandowski, has already been finalized and debated by the Lula government. The text will be submitted to the House of Representatives and the Senate after Lula’s return from his trip to Japan, scheduled for next week.
Amnesty plus
PL leader in the House, Deputy Sostenes Cavalcante, said on Sunday, 23, in an interview with Estadão which currently accounts for the support of more than 310 amnesty deputies for January 8 prisoners.
In vain
Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) tried to convince his son, Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), to return from the United States after the deputy announced his decision to stay in the country for 120 days, alleging fears about the apprehension of his passport and a possible prison. Eduardo officially reported his license in the House of Representatives on March 20, but had already published his decision on social networks days earlier.
Janja
Gleisi Hoffmann defended the creation of an honorary position for the first lady, Janja, without remuneration or bond with the State, to allow her greater performance in events and programs. She stressed the importance of Janja in the social role and criticized opposition attacks, noting that similar criticisms were made to former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, especially about public spending. Gleisi also highlighted machismo in Janja -directed criticism. The proposal arises amid controversy over the costs of first lady travel and his team, which reached R $ 24,000 in daily rates.
Carla Zambelli
Supreme Federal Court Minister Flávio Dino voted on Sunday (23) for the conviction of federal deputy Carla Zambelli (PL-SP) for illegal firearm crimes and illegal embarrassment with firearm use.
The minister’s decision accompanied that of the rapporteur of the case, Gilmar Mendes, leading to the sum of four favorable decisions for the revocation of the parliamentarian, against zero votes. Also accompanied by the rapporteur’s thesis, the ministers Alexandre de Moraes and Cármen Lúcia.
Corporate
BANCO DO BRASIL (BBAS3)
Banco do Brasil (BBAS3) announced, on Friday (21), the conclusion of an international capture of US $ 95 million, focused on water projects and water sanitation. The two -year Blue Repo operation was carried out in partnership with Banco Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking (CIB), which specializes in green finance and sustainability. Francisco Lassalvia, Banco do Brasil’s vice-president of wholesale business, stressed that the operation reinforces the bank’s commitment to sustainable finances. This is the second partnership between the institutions, after the Triple Sustainable in 2024, which raised $ 100 million.
(With Reuters and Estadão)
