The COVID-19 Pandemia He has left an indelible mark on the recent history of humanity. From its irruption at the end of 2019, to its statement as Global Pandemia In March 2020, this virus has radically transformed our lives. Although the mortality of COVID-19 has decreased considerably since then, its effects are still present at the level Socioeconomic, political and cultural. He has taught us lessons about vulnerability to infectious diseases and the speed with which a virus can become a global threat.
Although many countries are better prepared today than four years ago, many consider if we are prepared to face a new pandemicpossibly more lethal and devastating than the previous one. Recently, a report on the response of the National Health System of Spain to COVID-19 has alerted about the high probabilities that a New Pandemia. The Ministry of Health, which presented this report to the Autonomous Communities, highlights that the necessary measures to prevent future health emergency are still underway.
This will be the next pandemic
One of the most prominent virologists, Leonard Mámel, from Brown Universityhas raised an alarming theory about the possible origin of the next pandemic outbreak. According to Mámel, the next pandemic could be related to a chimeric virus, a hybrid between a human virus and an aviar virus.
In this scenario, a worker of a poultry farm could infect both the human flu virus and with the Avian flu virus at the same time. These two viruses would merge within the worker’s cells and create a new virus, much more lethal than the SARS-COV-2, the head of the COVID-19.
This new virus would be able to spread rapidly through respiratory dropletssimilar to how it happened with the Coronavirus. However, its lethality would be much greater: according to Mámel, this new strain could end the life of between 30% and 40% of the people infected.
What makes this situation even more worrying is that the place where this pandemic could originate is an area of the world where human infections with avian flu are already relatively common. According to Mámel, China It is the most likely place for this chimeric virus to develop due to the prevalence of avian flu in the region. In addition, the H5N1 strain of the aviar flu has experienced several changes in recent decades, although it has not yet evolved enough to easily transmit from person to person.
Jemel also points out that this virus could cause pandemic in the next 10 to 20 years, but that, of course, there are no guarantees of when it will occur. This type of predictions, although alarming, must be taken with caution, since predicting pandemics is extremely difficult due to the unpredictable nature of viruses.
On the other hand, Martin Hirsch, virologist at Massachusetts Hospitalhe has also reflected on the possible causes of the next pandemic, although in his case, he considers that he could be both an aviar flu virus and a coronavirus. Hirsch believes that, if the next outbreak is caused by a coronavirus, it could occur when this virus infects an intermediary animal, such as a pig, and suffers a mutation that allows its transmission between human beings.
If so, the virus would have the potential to spread quickly and effectively, similar to what happened with the SARS-COV-2. Hirsch also believes that the origin of the new virus could be in United States, Europe or Chinasince in these places the sanitary conditions are not always the most appropriate, which facilitates the spread of diseases.
The expert also emphasizes that the surveillance of animals and the conditions in which they live would play a key role in the prevention of a possible pandemic caused by a coronavirus. In fact, the appearance of new viruses in animals, especially in living animal markets or in areas where there is a close contact between human beings and animalsit is one of the main concerns of virology experts.
Finally, another expert, Elmer Gray, entomologist at the University of Georgiaposes a different hypothesis about the origin of the next pandemic: insects. According to Gray, insects, especially mosquitoes, could be responsible for spreading a completely new and unknown disease for humanity.
The Diseases transmitted by insectssuch as Zika or Dengue, they have already demonstrated their ability to cause serious outbreaks in certain regions of the world, and Gray believes that the coming years could bring more surprises in this regard. Elmer Gray warns that the possibility of a pandemic outbreak of this nature is high and that we must be prepared to face it.
As experts around the world argue about possible Threats that could cause the next pandemicit is clear that the world is still vulnerable to new outbreaks.
