Stimulated by the anticipated goods expeditions before the new exorbitant customs surcharge of Donald Trump, the Chinese economy reports better health than that expected in the first quarter. Gross domestic product growth (GDP) was 5.4 % over a year, according to the National Statistics Office (ENB). A result much higher than 5.1 % provided by a panel of analysts questioned by AFP.
“The taxation of customs duties raised by the United States exerts a certain pressure on foreign trade and the economy”, conceded Wednesday during a press brief Sheng Laiyun, deputy commissioner of the BNS. But “this will not change the general trend of a Chinese economy which continues to improve in the long term,” he said.
Damage “from next month”
Retail sales, a key consumption indicator, increased by 4.6 % in annual sliding, according to the SNB. As for industrial production, it accelerated during the first quarter: it was up 6.5 % over one year – compared to 5.7 % during the last three months of 2024. According to official figures published this week, Chinese exports increased by 12 % over a year in March – a much higher level than expected.
This performance is explained in particular by the acceleration of expeditions to the United States, companies having rushed their orders before the entry into force of the largest part of the American surcharges in April, experts say.
But the current level of American customs duties, at 145 %, should quickly put an end to the economic thinning recorded in China in the first quarter, judge most of the analysts. “The damage caused by the trade war will be seen in macroeconomic data next month,” predicts in a note Zhiwei Zhang, economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
“All of this was predictable”
For Steve Innes, analyst of the SPI Asset Management firm, the figures announced on Wednesday “give the illusion of success, but will not be mistaken, it was all predictable”. “This performance is largely due” to the windfall effects because “fueled by an increase in preventive activity” and “by an overtocking in the United States, where importers rushed to get ahead of” Donald Trump’s surcharges, he explains in a note.
For its part, the United States gave signs of relaxation on Friday, by granting exemptions for smartphones, laptops or even semiconductors, of which China is a major producer. But colossal surchastens always apply to other sectors.
