He dollar price descended from the liberation of the stocks, and It is already located near $ 1,100. In that tonic, forecasts of economists were disseminated that estimate what the lowest price that can reach the exchange rate in December can be.
In the International Report of Focuseconomicsin which some 40 analysts from local and abroad consultants were surveyed, several experts risk that the wholesale dollar, practically, can be “nailed” at the same level throughout the year.
Specifically, the German Financial Services multinational Allianzpredicted in the survey published in early April that the exchange rate can be maintained around $ 1,100 at the end of December. And a dozen more consultants also place it below $ 1,200 for the end of the year.
It should be remembered that almost at the same time from the publication of this international survey, the exchange rate was built, and the Central Bank established a Flotation strip for the wholesale dollar between $ 1,000 and $ 1,400with a monthly adjustment of 1%.
In fact, this Tuesday closed to $ 1,104, by moving almost 1% compared to the previous day.
Therefore, to reach the minimum price planned for December of $ 1,100, Throughout 2025 “it would barely” rise 6.6%.
It should be remembered that the estimates presented at the end of last year by the Minister of Economy, Luis “Toto” Caputoin it Budget 2025they were a price of the wholesale dollar of $ 1,207 for December.
That is to say, A number very similar to that which the most “optimistic” analysts are projecting.
Of course it is worth clarifying that the consensus of all relieved economists is higher and reaches $ 1,306, figure that would imply a devaluation of 26.6% throughout the year.
Even, in the operations carried out in the Future market and Matba-Rofex optionsthe negotiated price for the wholesale exchange rate by the end of December is higher, since it is located in $ 1,373which implies a 33% rise between January to December.
In all these cases, the expected devaluation worries because it is much lower than the expected inflation, which, according to the same report, would be an average of 42.9% throughout 2025. Therefore, it would accentuate to exchange backwardness.
“The agreement with the IMF reinforces international reserves, which allows the government Risk of strong currency depreciation and a consequent rebound of inflationary pressures “warns Focuseconomics in your report.
The lowest dollar price for some economists for the end of the year can be equal to the current one.
Lower dollar price, according to economists
Among economists who project the lowest wholesale dollar for the end of the year, according to international survey, 14 estimates are below the figure planned in budget 2025 of $ 1,207 for the end of the year.
The lowest data is Fishco Economicswith a prostage exchange rate of $ 1,060 by the end of the year. They follow him Allianz ($ 1,100), the Argentine consultant Econometric ($ 1,164), Banco Galicia ($ 1,169), E2 Economics ($ 1,169), Supervielle Bank ($ 1,170) and another national consultant: C&T Advisorswith 1,174 pesos.
“We estimate that this figure will be adjusted, but we still want to wait a bit to see how the market is accommodated, because at this time it is all very volatile, “ affirms Camilo Tiscornia
Beyond that, consider that “There will not be a very large inflationary impact Because I think there are things that have already been adjusted before the government’s announcement to lift the stocks, and in terms of exchange rate you have to see. ”
In his analysis, Tiscornia considers that from now until June currencies will enter through the liquidation of the harvest Thickness of the countryside, which “helps to give peace of mind, but then, near the elections, in the third quarter it begins to be a little more tension. And at the end of the year we will have to see a little depending on what will happen after the votes.”
Meanwhile, Fernando Baereconomist of the Qualo Consultant, directed by Daniel Marx, who in the focuseeconomics prior to the squeeze of the stocks expected $ 1,191, states that with the modification of the exchange situation, “Logically, we change the projections And we hope it will be above that number at the end of the year, at levels of $ 1,250 to 1,300 pesos “.
Therefore, he argues that There may be “some minor appreciation for the end of the yearand doing some Catch up to go to those new levels planned. “
In summary, local economic and political aspects are put under the magnifying glass, and it must also be attentive to what will happen to the dollar price worldwide, in an environment of tension in the United States between its government and the Federal Reserve (FED) for reference interest rates.-
