The uncertainty and instability that has occurred worldwide for readjust “deceleration significant »of global growth In the short term, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has reviewed its growth forecasts, with the exception of Spain.
«The rapid escalation of the commercial tensions It has generated extremely high levels of political ambiguity, which makes it more difficult to establish a central global growth perspective, ”alerted the IMF, which manages a” reference prognosis “on the basis of the measures announced until April 4.
Thus, his report reveals it World economic perspectivewhich has been published this Tuesday, April 22. In this analysis, the IMF recognizes that the announcement of tariffs on April 2 forced them to rule out their projections, noting that, despite the fact that many of the programmed increases are suspended, the high degree of current economic and financial integration implies that the possible disintegration of supply chains and world financial flows could “constitute an important source of economic disturbance».
IMF forecasts are reduced
Given this scenario, world growth will decrease its expansion rhythm from a 3.3% estimated in 2024 to 2.8% In 2025, before recovering at 3% in 2026, which represents a downward review with respect to the projections of last January of a percentage point this year and three tenths the following.
However, according to the IMF forecast prior to April 2, world growth would be from 3.2% Both for 2025 and 2026, a reduction of just a tenth every year compared to the projection update of January 2025.
While if the measures announced between the April 5 and 14 and assuming its permanence, world growth by 2025 would be approximately the 2.8% and 2.9% By 2026, rates similar to those of the reference forecast, although with a different composition of growth for countries.
The IMF also points out that the profits derived from the reduction of effective tariffs for countries previously subject to higher rates would be compensated by a lower growth in China and the United States As a result of the increase in tariffs that would spread through global supply chains, while losses in China and the United States would be higher from 2026, fading the profits in other regions.
“The downward reviews are widespread in all countries and largely reflect the direct effects of new commercial measures and their indirect effects through repercussions on commercial ties, the increase in uncertainty and deterioration of trust,” said the IMF. However, this organism highlights as an exception the case of Spain, since it ensures that “its dynamism contrasts with the slow dynamics of the rest of the world.”
Specifically, the IMF expects a growth of the Spanish GDP of 2.5% in 2025two tenths more than anticipated in January, while keeping unchanged the expansion expectation of 1.8% by 2026.
For the IMF, this reflects an important remnant of the results best than expected in 2024, when Spain grew by 3.2%as well as the effect of reconstruction activities after the floods caused by the DANA.
United States GDP
In this way, Spain would highlight as the advanced economy with the greatest rate of growth, since the forecast to USA suffers a hard downward correction of nine tenths Regarding the January forecast, up to 1.8% in 2025 and four tenths for next year, up to 1.7%.
«This downward review is due to greater political uncertainty, commercial tensions and more moderate demand perspectives, given a slower consumption growth of the expected one, ”explained the Fund on the US.
While in the case of the euro zone, growth is expected to be slightly 0.8% in 2025before moderately 1.2% in 2026, which represents an adjustment of two tenths in both exercises, as a result of the impact of the growing uncertainty and tariffs this year, although the greatest consumption thanks to the increase in real wages and the fiscal flexibility provided for in Germany will boost the activity slightly in 2026.
Among the main economies of the euro, in addition to Spain, the IMF has reviewed its forecasts for Germanyup to 0% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026, compared to 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively, January; While in the case of France, its prognosis of 2025, to 0.6%, and in a 2026, up to 1%, and for Italy now anticipate an expansion of 0.4%and 0.8%, respectively, which implies a three tenth reduction for 2025 and one for next year.
