Despite what was said a few days ago, it is not true that airf endorses the sustainability of pensions. What he says is that with the form of calculation of the spending rule, very sensitive to disturbances, enters the path of sustainability, but, likewise, being very sensitive, doubt of the ability of said indicator to be a reliable element of sustainability measurement.
On the other hand, it makes it clear that such sustainability has not improved and that pension spending will grow 3.4 GDP points up to 2050, when two years ago it estimated that this expense would increase 3% in that period. That is, it increases its forecast in almost half -point of GDP, and that is now calculated on a higher nominal GDP, due to the extraordinary review that occurred for the year 2021 made in September last year, where the nominal GDP of that year 2021 in 35,000 million euros rose. Only that GDP review makes each GDP point of increase in spending increase it additionally for the review of GDP at 350 million euros. Therefore, on the current GDP, the four tenths of deviation increase the pension spending by 6,364 million euros, which would be 6,224 million with GDP before the review, being due to the revision of the GDP up well an increase in expenditure on pensions of 140 million euros. In this way, the diversion of the four tenths of expenditure on pensions on the previous GDP is a greater pressure on this expenditure of 6,224 million with the GDP of 2024 without checking, and another 140 million when reviewing it on the previous estimate, which did not include the review. That, at present: with a current GDP carried at 2050 the bill of pension spending will be much greater in current terms. Therefore, it is an expense of pensions on GDP 4 tenths more on a GDP higher than the initially estimated, so there is a clear acceleration of spending. Therefore, the Airef document really indicates the imbalances of the system, does not support sustainability that does not exist.
And this only worsens the previously existing situation in the field of Social Security: according to the last approved budgets, those of 2023 -because we are in budgetary extension in 2024, and we will see if they are approved by 2025 -which seems that not -within the climate of ungovernability that exists due to the insufficient parliamentary majority of Sánchez -Social Security has a non -financial expense of almost 200,000 million euros, where the majority It goes to contributory pensions, which increase the expenditure by 11.2% year -on -year, until reaching 166,776.9 million euros, with upward risk, already overflowed currently.
On the other hand, income is clearly insufficient. To begin with, they are 7,200 million lower than the expenses, staying at 192,000 million. Now, that figure is misleading, because it receives more than 40,000 million euros in current transfers of the State, so that, without that, the deficit would be much more important.
In addition, the contribution of the 2,793.2 million to the 2023 reserve fund is covered by the state loan, which serves to cover said contribution, the small difference between the rest of the operations of income and expenses and the non -financial deficit. In 2024, the contributions will raise the fund to 8,356 million euros in euros currents in the so -called pension piggy bank, but when it was created with Aznar it was real savings, because social security was in surplus, it is now false, because the savings is due to an accounting artifice.
Therefore, pensions are not guaranteed, but are put at risk with public spending increase measures. It is not a matter of ideologies but of actuarial mathematics. We have more and more pensioners and those pensioners charge a higher pension than those charged before, and do so for longer. Therefore, if nothing is done, the system collapses mathematically, and that is what to avoid. We must take measures to solve the problem and guarantee its sustainability.
