The government of Javier Milei Strong bet on the stability of the economy as a winning letter for elections October legislativewith him dollarinflation and poverty as factors that, according to one of the latest surveys, open a complex scenario where the ruling continues as a favorite in the intention to vote although it faces criticism of management, while the Kirchnerism raises some points.
It is a survey conducted by the Pulse Research consultant In early April, which threw among the most important data a Fall in approval on the management of Milei to 42.2% from the 51% peak that touched between January and February, combined with a strong growth of disapproval, which went from 40% to 51.4%.
In that situation picture seems to influence broad perception of an “increased poverty” -To the last data published by the Indec- Questions about “The course” of the Government and a polarization of opinions on Milei’s “ability to solve the problems of the economy.”
While the survey did not investigate the issue of inflation, it did in another issue that is linked to prices and the one that the Government gives it importance: the price of the dollar after the flexibility of the stocks. The perception of whether the currency is expensive or cheap is central because of its relationship with the ability to save Argentines. Milei and the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputothey try these days to maneuver with that variable.
Although Milei insists that inflation is always linked to monetary emission, it is known that in Argentina internal prices look at the dollar, so it is a sensitive variable towards the elections. According to the survey, La Libertad advances today has an intention to vote of almost 30% that predicts a triumph, but the road to October is crossed by the evolution of the economic situation.
Javier Milei and the management of the economy: What was the most sensitive data that the survey threw?
The Pulso consultancy conducted the survey online between April 2 and 9, with 1,800 effective cases. The main questions pointed to the economy and the progress of management. In that aspect, the 49.6% of those consulted He replied that he change proposed by the government “is on the wrong way”, while 37.8% considered it “correct” and 12.6% chose the option “do not know/do not answer.”
The survey threw a negative fact for Milei regarding poverty
Then, the survey investigated the perception around poverty. “In the place where he lives, did it increase, it remains the same or decreased?” It was the trigger question: 53.7% replied that it increased, while 24.7% say that the situation still does not change and only 15% of those consulted said it went down.
This look contrasts strongly with the last measurement of INDEC, according to which in the Second semester of 2024 Poverty was 38.1%, A strong decrease with respect to 52.9% of the first half of the same year, which was highlighted by Milei and the entire government in social networks. However, the survey threw another very sensitive fact referring to the credibility of that official index.
When asked about the measurement of poverty that the INDEC 53.4% of respondents replied “I don’t believe him”, while 34.7% said they do believe in official data on the socioeconomic situation and 11.9% “do not know.”
The price of the dollar, the government’s obsession: can it influence the elections?
The survey added other negative data for Milei, one of which has to do with the recent according to the IMF. While the government ensures that it does not imply an increase in debt and presents it as a sample of management support, the 46.1% of respondents expressed “in disagreement” With the new understanding while the 34.2% were “okay.” It is clear that this milestone for the ruling has little influence on your social support.
On the other hand, the survey interrogated the “Milei’s ability to solve the problems of the economy”. A high 48.3% of the respondents considered that “they do not know” how to solve them, while 29.4% said that “they know, but needs time” and 14.6% showed their confidence in responding that they do know.
The result threw that the Opinions about the ability of the president – a profession of profession – for the most decisive issue for the elections are polarized, given that while 48% were taxative in their disqualification, those who believe they need more time and those who fully trust themselves add 44% that gives Milei credit to run the economy.
The dollar divides opinions at a time when the government focuses on its price
The Sensitive issue of the dollar appeared in the middle of the survey on the economic one. The survey was carried out a few days before Milei announced the flexibility of the stocks and the free flotation between the $ 1,000 and $ 1,400, when the Blue quoted in the order of the $ 1,300. In that context, 29.4% of those consulted considered that the price of the currency “is fine”, while 27.3% said that “is expensive” and 17.3%, which was “cheap.”
The result was completed with a high 26% who said they have no opinion on the issue, possibly people who need to perform any dollar operation or – more likely – that have no savings capacity to buy US currency. In any case, the survey left an interesting panorama for the new exchange system and government claims.
And it is that more than half of the respondents were divided among those who considered that That price of $ 1,300 could be “equilibrium” And those who believe it should be a little belowa fact not less at a time when Milei shows his interest in the minimum of $ 1,000 While the field, as it transcends, wants between $ 1,250 and $ 1,300 to liquidate exports.
Javier Milei’s scenario for the elections: Can Kirchnerism put it in trouble?
The swing of the dollar is related to the evolution of inflation. In the government they deny it, to be faithful to Milei’s dogma, but they know that it is so. That is why Caputo pressed so that there would be no pricing based on a dollar of $ 1,400 and now try to pierce the floor of the band system. The dynamics of prices, in turn, is decisive for the electoral future of the ruling party.
The ruling party faces a rarened climate in that aspect, as can be seen from the pulse survey. When investigating the intention of general vote, the 37.5% replied that he plans to vote for “Someone opposing government” and the 36.2% bowed to someone “someone allied to the government”, with a high level of undecided, 26.3%.
However, also weighing the questions that the Government receives, by offering in the survey the political parties, La Libertad advances headed preferences with an intention to vote of 29.8%, followed by “Kirchnerist Peronism” with 22.1%. Much lagging appeared, with 7.2%; “Peronism or Federal Party” with 6.3%; The left, with 5.4% and the UCR, with 2.6%.
The electoral poll showed the ruling party at the head but in the fall and as well as
Although the undecided are still many (20.6% of the sample) the survey threw as a central fact that the Kirchnerism had a 4 -point rebound In recent months, which added to the most general responses about voting for an ally or an opponent to the government, where almost a technical draw is seen, it paints a Stage still very open and not so favorable for Milei.
And Lla was suffered a fall in his intention to vote, since In the same January measurement it was 30%, in February and March it rose to 31% and from there fell to 29.8% in April, while Kirchnerism climbed from 15.9% in January to 18% between February and March and from there it now rose to 22%.
In this way, the survey Pulse reveals that the government of Javier Milei It remains in the lead in the race for Legislative elections October, but that the Economy management, On which they begin to weigh criticism, you can still change the stage. Therefore, the Executive puts these days all his attention to keeping the dollar and prices, two variables that will be decisive.
