The contributions of the dollars, both official and parallel, continue to fall strongly after the elimination of much of the exchange rate. Even parallel dollars are already below the levels at which they quoted prior to the flexibility of the controls and the gap with respect to the official exchange rate collapsed to 1%, so it has been at least since 2019.
The greatest fall on Monday was recorded in the Informal marketwhere the price of the Blue dollar collapsed 8% to be $ 1,150 in the exchange houses of the City. Among the financial dollars, the MEP and had liquidation (CCL) retreated almost 4% to $ 1,122 and $ 1,132, respectively.
Meanwhile, the official retail exchange rate recorded a 4.3% drop compared to the previous closure, so the day ended at $ 1,110 on the National Bank screens. This price thus compressed to 1% the gap with respect to the MEP dollar, Which is logical and expected in a market with few or no exchange restrictions, so quotes tend to align.
In fact, the limited exchange gap is not only the lowest since the president’s assumption Javier Milei, but since September 2019, prior to the implementation of exchange controls. In addition, the current minimum gap contrasts with that of almost 200% in 2023, under the presidency of Alberto Fernández and the management of former Minister Sergio Massa.
The carry collaps the dollar and becomes more attractive
Personal investments portfolio states that short -term market expectation is that dollar quotes, Both official and financial, continue with the bearish trend until approaching the $ 1,000 barrier, lower limit of the flotation band that the government implemented, which when touching it the BCRA would buy currencies to lift the price and keep it within the established range.
The broker explains that the bearish trend would occur because in the last days the investors reinforced the Carry Tradestrategy in which they bet by instruments in local currency to take advantage of the yields in pesos while the dollar contributions advance little or fall, with the future objective of buying more currencies with the gain they obtained.
In this case, the strategy takes more strength after the Central Bank will announce the flexibility of access to the official market for changes for investors not residing in the country. The measure generated the expectation that dollars will enter from the outside to pass them to pesos and invest in instruments in local currency, which would exert more downward pressure in the different quotes of the currency.
According to the brocker, the beginning of high seasonality is added to the admission of dollars of the thick harvest of the agricultural sector. In addition, the ratification of the reprimand of retentions as of July 1 encourages the sale of the producers, who would aim to obtain a higher effective exchange rate, which would result in higher currency liquidations of the agro -exporters.
“According to the agreement with the IMF, the BCRA He is authorized to buy dollars within the flotation band, since he needs to accumulate reservations to meet his goals, but the government seems focused on giving signs of a stronger currency. However, the nature of the bands could put that possibility at risk, since the attractiveness for weight holders would be reduced as the exchange rate approaches the lower limit, “says Max Capital.
Does the dollar go to the floor of the flotation band?
Outlier analysts claim that official measures and statements of officials point to more exchange rate, with exchange rates heading towards the area of the floor of the flotation band ($ 1,000). Above all, with the flexibility of the exchange rate for non -resident investors, which would boost lower in the dollar contributions.
“We believe that this government pressure so that exchange rate It is aimed at the floor of the flotation band can be not very timely because it could add volatility in the future given the band’s own logic, the effect ‘bread for today and hunger for tomorrow’ that we relive in 2023, associated to hurry agricultural liquidations with temporary benefits and the noise that the next elections can contribute, “they warn.
In that sense, they argue that the flexibility of the income of non -residents to the official market of changes contributes dollars Today, but they may require them later, taking into account that the minimum of permanence required for these investments is six months, so those who enter will now be enabled to withdraw prior to the elections.
“In addition, except that a Waiver of the International Monetary Fund Regarding the objectives of accumulation of reservations, at some point the Central Bank should start buying dollars in the change market. The goal to June is accessible, but that of December, taking into account debt payments in July dollars, is much more demanding, “they highlight.
