Ibovespa Highlights in March

Ibovespa fell more than 1% on Monday (31), contaminated by risk aversion abroad amid the expected announcement of new tariffs by the president of the United States.

However, in the month, the Brazilian scholarship benchmark had gains of 6%, guided by companies such as Magalu (MGLU3), Cogna (COGN3) and refrigerators such as Minerva (BEEF3), JBS (JBSS3) and Marfrig (MRFG3). The shares of the 5 companies had gains more than 30%.

Already on the side of the losses, highlight the fall of Natura (NTCO3), with low of more than 20%. However, only 4 assets recorded losses of more than 6%.

Check out the high and low highlights in the month:

Highest

Minerva (Beef3), JBS (JBSS3) and Marfrig (MRFG3): +42.99%, +32.66% and 32.5%

Refrigerator actions are, together, the sector that most highlighted in general, but with a busy news in the companies.

Minerva released its results, with a net loss of R $ 1.57 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 (4T24), reversing the R $ 19.8 million profit recorded in the same period of the previous year. However, despite the negative result, the actions jumped post-stab. In the XP view, Minerva presented solid results and above the XP (XPE) estimates, driven by larger volumes than expected. Net revenue was $ 10.7 billion ( +74% year to year and +8% versus xpe), while adjusted ebitda reached $ 944 million ( +56% year to year and +12% versus xpe).

“It is worth highlighting an adjustment of R $ 33.6 million in ‘other expenses’, which requires greater detail by the company. On the other hand, margins retreated by reflecting the increase in cattle prices,” says the analysis team. Despite the most significant impact from Brazil and the new plant’s ramp-up phase, cattle prices are also rising in Uruguay and Argentina, with the last facing the highest macroeconomic volatility, analysts point out.

In the case of JBS, the highlight of the news was an evolution for the company’s double listing in the US. BNDESPAR, the National Bank of Economic and Social Development Bank (BNDES), agreed to abstain from voting at the Extraordinary General Assembly (AGE) that will decide on JBS’s listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Thus, the decision will be in the hands of minority shareholders, which the market has interpreted as a positive sign for the implementation of the operation. This movement caused the market value to increase at $ 20 billion.

XP Investimentos highlighted in report Seeing the ad as positive as it removes a possible obstacle to the approval of JBS’s double listing, especially considering the market speculation that BNDESPAR’s governance could restrict it from maintaining large participation in companies based outside Brazil.

In addition, according to XP, the announcement reinforces the company’s controlling shareholder optimism regarding the potential dual listing. However, the broker notes that the duration of the agreement seems long, which could raise concerns that JBS is not optimistic about the execution of the double listing in the near future.

For Marfrig, at the end of the month, the company released its 4T results with adjusted EBITDA (excluding BRF (BRFS3) of R $ 849 million, 6.4% above Bank of America projections. However, the bank has maintained the neutral recommendation for the company’s actions, citing a challenging scenario for the beef sector and a gradual breakdown process.

Magazine Luiza (MGLU3): +41.96%

Magazine Luiza’s actions stood out as the biggest shooting in March. In much of the month, the view that Brazil should not raise both interest and previously expected in the midst of signs of economic slowdown was a factor for the asset, even though the retailer still faces a challenging scenario.

In the month, the highlight was at the session of March 14 after the fourth quarter of 2024 (4T24). In adjusted terms, net profit increased by 37.1% compared to the same period of 2023 to R $ 139.2 million; Without adjustments, the profit advanced 38.9% in the annual comparison to R $ 294.8 million, while EBITDA (profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) grew 53.6% to R $ 842.4 million.

If, on the one hand, profitability is still on the rise, on the other hand, analysts are still seeing sales slowdown and do not see so much comfort to expose themselves in the asset taking into account the macroeconomic scenario.

In a teleconference, Frederico Trajano, CEO of Magazine Luiza, stressed that retailer Luiza intends to accelerate credit to increase sales in 2025, says president, with opportunity for acceleration after the central bank authorization to Magalupay. In addition, he stressed that the focus in 2025 is in sales conversion to improve profitability in recent years and that the company continues negotiating with aliexpress expansion of partnership to logistics.

Still highlighted, at the end of the month, the action cheered after the board of directors of the retailer approves the proposal for distribution of intermediate dividends in the net amount of R $ 225 million. The proposal will be voted by shareholders at an extraordinary general meeting on April 24. If approved, the dividends will be paid in cash, in national currency, on May 5, 2025, to the holders of issuance actions of the company, based on the stock position of April 25, 2025.

Cogna (cogn3): +37.50%

In the same line of opportunities search for a closer scenario to end the interest cycle, Cogna’s actions registered strong gains in March.

In front of Micro, the education group released a profit of R $ 925.8 million in the fourth quarter, with two -digit growth growth. The board also approved dividend distribution, still subject to the approval of the Assembly, after the company determined in 2024 the first annual profit in five years.

However, analysts still saw the results with considerations. In Morgan Stanley’s view, there were two major factors that made it difficult to interpret results. First, accounting was changed again on 4T24, with positive impact on revenue, but neutral on EBITDA. The second point is that the cogna reversed $ 807 million in tax contingencies, which helped in the final result and is not fully excluded from the company’s adjusted/recurring metrics.

Check out the Ibovespa highs in March:

Larger

Natura & Co (NTCO3): -22.74%

Natura (NTCO3) leads the falls of the month, with loss of more than 20%. The retail giant saw the largest retreat of the roles in its history, after the release of its fourth quarter results of 2024. The fall shortly after the results were almost 30%, which made the company lose R $ 5.6 billion in market value. The fall made executives hold a meeting with analysts to clarify major investor concerns.

Among them was the announcement of changes with the proposal to incorporate Natura & Co Holding by the Integral Subsidiary, Natura Cosméticos SA. According to the company, the incorporation will not affect the strategies of business units, maintaining the brands integration plan in Latin America, with expected conclusion in 2025. With the changes, JPMorgan changed the company’s recommendation to the previous one overweightlike Goldman Sachs, which changed to previous purchase classification for neutral.

Marcopolo (Pomo4): -16.73%

Marcopolo’s actions (Pomo4) follow a fall trend even after a record results in 2024. Although the disclosure took place in late February and the papers react negatively, the company’s actions did not stand out as the biggest casualties of last month. In March, however, they present themselves as main in negative performance.

Even with good data on the balance sheet, Bradesco BBI analysts considered that the profit margin movement before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) would be potentially negative, compared to the previous quarter.

In Itaú BBA’s view, the focus of investors on Marcopolo’s EBITDA margin resulted in a lower performance at 25 percentage points against Ibovespa as long as its 4T24 results came out.

Considering that 4T24 numbers resonate with net profit of R $ 1.2 billion to 2025, this implies that the action is being negotiated at a 5.8 times price multiple (50% discount on the historical level) and 9% dividend performance, which is 80% above historical level. “In addition to its attractive assessment, Marcopolo remains a history of disagreement and is positively exposed to the dollar. On the other hand, we believe that positioning in the name remains above the historical average,” he says, thus maintaining a recommendation equivalent to the purchase.

Blue (blue4): -14.99%

Azul (Azul4) announced, on Friday, another stage of its debt restructuring process. According to XP, the announcement is a relevant part of the materialization of a relevant part of the strong potential of dilution of the total restructuring plan of blue.

“The total dilution of this announcement reaches 59%, while Ceteris Paribus (with all other constant variables), the leverage reported in 4T24 from 5.3 times the net debt/EBITDA would improve 0.3 time to 5.0 times,” says XP analysts in AD Report.

CEMIG (CMIG4): -6.41%

Cemig (CMIG4) ends the ranking of the main falls of March after a negative reaction to the fourth quarter balance of 2024. The company reported a 47.1% drop compared to the same period of 2023. The papers retreated almost 5% on the day of balance sheet release.

In March, the company also informed that the court of the 2nd Court of Public Finance of Belo Horizonte issued a new sentence on embargoes of declaration, declaring the previous decision in a popular action against the sale of Small Hydroelectric Centers (SHPs) and power plants (CGHS), correcting addiction to the formation of the process.

In addition, four other names fell more than 5% in the month: WEG (WEGE3), Azzas 2154 (Azza3), Suzano (Subz3), Embraer (EMBR3) and Klabin (KLBN11).

Check out Ibovespa’s falls in March: