In the fifth wheel from the leaving of the stocks, The Central Bank did not intervene in the official change market, On a day in which the exchange rate in the wholesale segment closed at $ 1,095 for purchase and $ 1,104 for sale, which increased $ 10 compared to the eve, and the retail dollar rose slightly this Tuesday on the screens of the National Bank to $ 1,120 for sale, which represented a 0.9% increase compared to the previous closure.
In turn, gross reserves International They registered a daily rise of US $ 51 million When reaching an amount of U $ 38,846 millionthe highest value in the last two years.
Central Bank is still absent without buying currencies: what do analysts alert
It is the fifth consecutive wheel that the BCRA remains absent in the exchange market. From the debut of the new flotation band, the BCRA does not intervene, that is, it did not buy or sell currencies.
President Javier Milei said that the official plan is to expect the exchange rate to go to the band’s floor and only there that the monetary entity goes out to buy.
Anyway, both in the staff report of the agreement with the IMF and in the statement released by the BCRA in which the new exchange measures were announced, it was indicated that the BCRA can intervene within the band to accumulate reservations or attenuate episodes of unusual volatility.
In this regard, Francisco RictoACM analyst, commented to iprofesional that “since the new exchange scheme was implemented, The BCRA still did not intervene in the wholesale marketgiving rise to a kind of Price Discovery of the exchange rate, which moves freely within the established band. “And said that” the decision to intervene only on the floor seeks to strengthen this process and let the market find its balance without official signs. “
However, Ratto said that The risk “if it is expected to touch the floor to begin to intervene, is that you can be missing opportunities for accumulation of reservations in a context where the goal agreed with the IMF for June implies purchases close to US $ 5,000 million“
“Likewise, there are only few wheels and it still remains to see the impact of the thick harvest. Probably, once this process of initial price training is overcome, let’s start seeing a more active participation of the BCRA. It is what we have to follow closely now,” he said.
The economist Federico Glustein He judged that “It is a wrong decision that the BCRA bought only in bandwood, Since it must accumulate more US $ 4,000 million in reserves, it is a great time to do it “in the context of the thick harvest.
For its part, the financial analyst Christian Buter He clarified that “I do not agree that the BCRA buy dollars by issuing pesos, but the problem is that if you do not buy now that it is the thick harvest, then it will make it more difficultIt is like a ice cream shop that does not sell ice cream in summer. “
“For me The one who has to buy is the treasurewith surplus or taking debt in pesos, “he said.
In turn, the consultant Outlier He said that “the key issue seems that the BCRA begins again to accumulate reserve, which for now does not make the nominal exchange rate approaches the floor of the new scheme.”
“Here is a short -term risk. If at any time the BCRA or the Treasury yield, after a considerable time without buying, and it is verified that they begin to do it inside the band, the signal can be bullish for the nominal exchange rate, and the bet would end up adding unnecessary volatility“
The consultant also remarked that since the band of the band is adjusted to the decline a 1% monthly, “the potential presence of the BCRA, according to the president, every day moves away more.”
“Unless the price has a strong fall in the coming days, the possibility of purchases of the BCRA on the floor of the bands is increasingly complicated,” Oultlier highlighted. And he said that “the BCRA at some point should start buying currencies because the goal (of accumulation of reservations) to June is accessible, but that of December taking into account July payments is much more demanding.”
Reservations, with a slight increase of dollars
The stock of gross reservations today rose $ S51 million with respect to the previous day, and reached an amount of U $ 38,846 million, The highest level since March 31, 2023, when in the coffers of the monetary entity there were US $ 39,060 million.
In this way, gross reserves record so far in April an increase of US $ 13,794 million, promoted the entry of the first IMFR’s disbursement for US $ 12,000 million, and a world bank turn for US $ 1,500 million.
In turn, gross reserves evidences in which an increase of US $ 9,234 million.
The analysts of PPI they estimated that as a result of disbursements the net reserves They are used to measure the IMF goal, which does not contemplate as a short -term liabilities the treasure deposits in the BCRA and the 12 -month Breoping payments, they went from negative land to be positive around AU $ S5.527 million As of Wednesday, April 16, the greatest amount since the end of January 2023.
In this context, the Consultant 1816 He argued that “as Argentina still has debt maturities and at the moment you cannot access the debt market, while the BCRA does not buy in the Mulc not only will not accumulate net reserves, but will be losing them.”
“While the BCRA is kept without intervening and The country still does not access the voluntary rollovernet reserves can only go down. Due to the net reservations of the agreement, US $ 4,900 million here in mid -June must be accumulated. For the fulfillment of the goal, the IMF disbursements or extraordinary disbursements of organisms are not counted, “he said.
In that context, the consulting firm 1816 stated that “in our base stage the BCRA and/or the treasure put buyers within the band sooner rather than later.”
