Arthur Carvalho, chief economist at Trxt Investimentos, said China is increasingly focused on consolidating its geopolitical influence on dependent countries, especially in Latin America and Africa. According to him, the Chinese strategy is clear: to strengthen its position in these continents to expand its economic and diplomatic power.
The statements were made during the program Stock Pickerspresented by Lucas Collazo and Henrique Esteter. The economist pointed out that Chinese diplomacy efforts with India have been less effective, while the relationship with Latin American and African countries gains more robustness.
Chinese target
Carvalho stressed that an example of this posture is the controversy involving the Panama Canal, where a Chinese company that controlled a strategic port charged high waiting rates for entry into the channel. The initiative was part of the project One Belt One Roadwhich promotes subsidized investments in global infrastructure. However, the Panama government has already decided not to renew the concession, breaking with the Chinese program.
For the economist, the episode illustrates China’s focus in regions where its influence is more forceful, such as Latin America and Africa. In contrast, India remains less susceptible to Chinese control, reinforcing its independent posture. “China likes relationships where it has more control and can impose itself better. India is not this case,” said Carvalho.
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Another aspect addressed was the troubled relationship between China and India, marked by historical tensions involving border disputes. Carvalho pointed out that diplomatic meetings between the two countries often end up centered on these differences, preventing significant advances in economic or geopolitical cooperation.
Diplomatic efforts
According to him, China prefers to invest its diplomatic efforts in countries where it can get more concrete results. “India has its own star and does not depend so much on China,” explained the economist, noting that the tectonic plates of geopolitics are constantly moving, but Chinese focus seems to be consolidated in Latin America and Africa.
In addition to geopolitical movements, Carvalho addressed China’s economic performance. After a growth of only 2% last year, the economist foresees a cyclic recovery to about 3.5% this year. According to him, the market is adjusting its exaggerated pessimism in the face of signs of economic resumption.
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In the United States, the Trump government’s volatile posture, with policies that come and go, also generates uncertainties in the market. For Carvalho, this oscillation causes insecurity in the business community, which seeks stability to plan their investments. “It is important to separate what is structural from what is cyclical,” said the economist, highlighting the importance of accompanying global economic movements with caution.
