The Ministry of Economy will face this Thursday the last Treasury Debt Bidding of this month, in which you must get funds to cover maturities for an amount of $ 7.5 billionaccording to private estimates.
It will be the Second test after the departure of the stocks for natural persons and flexibility for companies, and the implementation of the new scheme of exchange flotation bands.
In the prelude to this tender, the wholesale dollar closed for sale in $ 1,160 With which he had a daily rise of $ 56, and moved away from the $ 1,000 floor of the band, and the parallel dollars reheated: the Blue ended at $ 1,210, with a 2.11%rise, while the one counted with liquidation and mep climbed 2.4%.
In this context, the focus of the market in this tender will be placed in the percentage of Roll Over, given that in the previous debt placement carried out on April 14, 75% of the maturities renewed, and also in the rate that the treasure will be willing to validate. In that sense, the financial analyst Christian Buter He highlighted in his social network account X: “L.Up of the dollars today, press the treasure to validate the highest rate in the tender? “
Debt in pesos: These are investment options
To face this tender, the Ministry of Finance developed a wide and varied menu of 8 options.
The basket contemplates Two Lecapswith maturities this year: one on August 15 of this year (S15G5) and the other on September 12 (S12S5)
The menu also offers Two zero coupon bonus adjusted by CER (bancer)that expire on October 31, 2025 (Tzxo5) and March 31, 2027 (Tzxm7).
Also provide one Treasury lyrics linked to the official dollar that expires on January 16, 2026 (D16e6)
And includes Two treasure bonds capitalizable in pesos (Boncap) which expire on January 30, 2026 (T30E6) and on the 15th of 2027 (T15E7).
The analysts of FACIMEX VALUES They specified that all instruments will tender price, without maximum or minimum. They also detailed that “the maturities of this tender correspond to the S28A5 ($ 5.6 billion) and the TC25 ($ 1.8 billion), where we estimate that 44% are held by private banks, 22% in the possession of the sustainability guarantee fund, and 14% in the hands of FCI.
Also, in PPI They calculated that “approximately 72% of the amount at stake would be in the hands of private holderss “.
The Reception of the bids for the tender will begin at 10 am on Thursday and will end at 3:00 p.m.
What evaluation of the menu did the experts?
In FACIMEX VALUES They stressed that “for the first time since mid -January, the Treasury does not offer Lecaps to 1 or 2 months, a forceful sign that the economic team is looking to clear the short -term maturities.”
“In fact, the shortest LECAP term already exceeds the weighted average (for an emitted amount) of the debt awarded in the last 4 tenders,” they said.
They also considered that “in terms of strategy, for total return portfolios we prioritize the middle-long section of the CER curve, so we highlight the TZXM7 among the assets that are tendered.”
In tune, Tobias Sánchez, Capital Cocos Research Analyst, he pointed to iprofesional that the treasure “He will try to take advantage of the recent decline in the rates of the curve to stretch duration (duration), since, due to the tensions linked to the negotiation with the IMF prior to the outflow, many maturities were concentrated in the short section“
Of the menu, the analysts of Delphos InvestmenT emphasized “the return of the long boncaps” and pointed out that “the demand for these assets has increased following the long -awaited recapitalization of the BCRA, which allowed a partial output of the stocks”
“A combination of strong liquidations by the field and a weakening of the dollar, with the DXy index below 100 led to a strong decrease in the exchange rate. All this contributed to a greater demand for Carry Trade, especially in the long section, where the rates strongly compressed, flattening the curve around 2.6% TEM, “they said.
Within that framework, in Delphos they evaluated that “considering the wide difference of rates with respect to the past tender, where government came to validate 3.75% rates in the short section, it was expected that the government will again offer in the long section of the curve, to be able to stretch the duration of its maturities, which are strongly concentrated in the next three months of the year.”
Debt in pesos: What are expectations?
Some analysts doubt that a renewal of 100%maturities can be achieved, and claim that refinancing debt is more difficult, since investors now have greater access to the official exchange market and the weights are not captive. change officer, so the weights are no longer so captive. Instead, others believe that the treasure will seek to roll a high percentage.
And it is that in Cohen Sa they stressed that “After the liquidation of the tender last weekthe treasure had $ 3.9 billion deposited in the BCRA account, being able to cover up to 53% of the maturities. “
In this regardSanchez He argued that “The objective of the treasure will be to achieve a rollover at least 100%, since it faces maturities for $ 7 billion and has just over $ 3 billion in deposits in the BCRA. “
The financial analyst Gustavo Ber He said that “the prospects for the tender are very positive, so I estimate that a 100%Over roll would be achieved, with the possibility that savers are tilt to extend the duration.”
The expert expects “The most demanded titles will be the Lecaps and Boncaps, because the appetite is still firmer for the fixed rate “and said that “I do not anticipate interest in dollar-linked in the current economic-financial context.”
“I also do not consider this scenario to have to validate higher rates than the secondary market,” he emphasized
With the same look, the economist Natalia Motylhe judged that Despite the firm rise that the blue dollar and financial dollars registered in the prior to the tender, “a greater exposure in pesos remains profitable so I think they will achieve a 100%Over roll”
The specialist also said that “until the official exchange rate is stabilized, The treasure will not validate higher rates“
Andrés Reschini, F2 financial solutions also stated that “With the highest exchange rate, the Carry becomes more tempting and the appetite is grows due to peso rate so, although it seems paradoxical, the treasure can benefit.”
Of equal diagnosis, Fernando BaerChief Economist of Quantum Finance, hopes that the Treasury will renew all the maturities and estimates “there will be demand in short LECAP and CER, a very arbitrated market, depending on the cash needs of investors.”
For its part, Pablo LazzatiInsider Finance CEO projected that “the roll-over will be close to 80% -90% without difficulties to achieve it, but they may take less and without extra incentives in the offer with the aim of achieving a low rate.”
“The idea of extending the deadlines goes in that line, they seek to extend the curve so that the rate is going down around 30% reference throughout the curve, as there were before the announcement of the length of the stocks, since the rate had increased above 40% the hiperity and the implicit rate 55% future dollar,” he said.
The economist Federico Glustein He believes that “there will be no 100%Roll Over, and the most demanded titles will be the Lecaps, because the fixed rate in pesos is today more attractive than a dollar linked letter.”
Asked about whether a renewal of less than 100% can impact the dollar, Glustein said that “there could be in the very short term, but then with a higher rates rise could occur another effect.”
In PPI They evaluated that “this tender occurs in a favorable context, since the rally experienced by the instruments in pesos last week enables the treasure to validate relatively lower yields, especially in the long stretch of the curve, where a greater compression of fees was observed.”
“For example, last Wednesday the Boncap to tender rendered between 2.6% and 2.7% of TEM, while this Tuesday they closed in the area of 2.3%/2.6%. In this sense, we estimate that this dynamic could have encouraged the finance decision to extend the duration in the instrument menu, since the smaller -term title has a expiration at 109 days,” they used.
According to his vision, “after the scheme change, we think it can be a good opportunity to stretch duration within the fixed rate curve.”
Of the same look, the Research team of BRIDGE He argued that “after the new exchange scheme, the peso curves compressed a lot, which allows the treasure to extend the duration of the titles offered.”
On the impact you may have on the dollars, in case all expiration are not renewed, in Puente they indicated that “We continue in a limited liquidity scheme, to the extent that the rollover is not excessively low we should not see instability in the exchange rate for it.”
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