François Bayrou spent the winter, but spring promises to be just as perilous. The Prime Minister holds this Tuesday a government conference on public finances, in order to expose French “pathologies”. “The truth is decisive for the necessary decisions to be made” in the next budget, he said. Its Minister of Economy has announced the color: France will have to make an “considerable” additional effort of 40 billion euros. What weaken the position of unpopular François Bayrou, also threatened by the accusations against him in the Betharram case.
Bis repetita on the budget
After having passed in extremis the 2025 budget, which had dropped his predecessor Michel Barnier in Matignon, François Bayrou already sees a new “Himalayas”. To avoid the fall, the mayor of Pau is therefore organizing a big raout this Tuesday to talk about “all risks” inherent in making the next budget, and preparing the French to make efforts to achieve the target of public deficit of 4.6 % of GDP in 2026. “The Barnier government was not in the dialogue. With Bayrou, it is different, he showed it by finding an agreement with the socialists in the previous budget, and by launching the conclave on pensions, ”says a macronist deputy.
But the Prime Minister will quickly be (re) confronted the absence of a majority in the Assembly. The announcement of the 40 billion to find has already brought up the opposition between the left, favorable to tax increases for the richest, and the central block, which makes it a red line. To make sure, the conclave, which had made it possible to escape the censorship of the PS, must make its conclusions at the end of May. The failure – expected – of an agreement between the unions and the employers could precipitate the vote of a motion of censorship of the socialists and their colleagues of the NFP, to which could join the votes of the national rally. “The social question, and in particular pensions, has always been a reason for censorship for us,” warns an RN deputy.
A Betharram case overlooking
And the deficit is not the only black cloud that sits above the head of the Palois. A former gendarme and an ex-judge again overwhelmed François Bayrou on Thursday before the parliamentary commission of inquiry born from the Betharram scandal. Testimonies under oath which go against the denials of François Bayrou, who reaffirmed on Friday that he was “absolutely not” intervened in the case of the physical and sexual violence of this Catholic establishment, where several of his children were educated.
Two dates could increase pressure on the mayor of Pau. On April 24, the book Betharram’s silenceco-signed by Alain Esquerre, spokesperson for the victims of the school, is released in bookstores with in particular the highly anticipated testimony of the prime minister’s eldest daughter. On May 14, finally, François Bayrou will be before the commission of inquiry as a former Minister of National Education (1993-1997). A hearing long awaited by his opponents.
Unpopular, even in macronists
Under these conditions, the disenchantment of the French for François Bayrou never ceases to grow. Four months after his appointment in Matignon, the Prime Minister plunges into polls. According to the monthly Ipsos barometer produced from April 9 to 10, 67 % of French people now carry an unfavorable judgment on its action, three points more than last month. Above all, the mayor of Pau particularly disappoints the sympathizers of the central block (Renaissance-Modem-horizons). He recorded his highest drop in popularity: 12 points less compared to March, with only 53 % of favorable opinions. A lack of support found in macronist deputies, not really excited by their Prime Minister.
“Honestly, I do not very well understand what his communication strategy is. He is not always very clear, there are statements that I do not subscribe … ”, assures a parliamentarian. His declarations on immigration, on Betharram, or his “disorder” after the conviction of Marine Le Pen aroused discomfort in the majority. “We are in support, but as in a form of coalition. I do not feel engaged by Bayrou disorders, ”adds this elected Renaissance. While the conviction of Marine Le Pen has increased the temperature within the RN, the PS congress scheduled for June and the Battle for the LR presidency (mid-May) could also have an impact on the future of a Prime Minister who hopes despite everything between the drops.
