The economic agenda reserves relevant events in the United States and Brazil on Wednesday (23). In the US, the Global S&P will disclose, at 10:45 am, the April PMI Indexes for the Industrial and Service sectors, providing updated reading on business activity at the beginning of the second quarter.
Then, at 11am, the data of new housing for March will be known, which offer visibility about the performance of the real estate market. At 11:30 am, attention turns to the weekly oil stocks, released by the Administration of Energy Information (EIA), an indicator that can influence commodity prices. The book Beige of the Fed, which will serve as the basis for the next monetary policy meeting, will be released at 15h.
In Brazil, the Central Bank will publish, at 2:30 pm, the weekly exchange rate flow, allowing to evaluate the behavior of foreign currency inputs and exits in the country. In the first quarter balance of 2025 (1T25), it is the turn of Hypera (Hype3) to present to today’s closure, its financial results.
AGENDA
President Lula will have a full agenda on Wednesday (23). At 09h00, participates in the virtual summit on climate ambition. At 11:30, he meets the Minister of Labor and Employment, Luiz Marinho, and the Minister of the Secretariat of Social Communication, Sidônio Palmeira. At 2:40 pm, the president is with the special secretary for legal affairs of the Civil House, Marcos Rogério de Souza. Then, at 3 pm, Lula meets with the Minister of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services, Vice President of the Republic Geraldo Alckmin, the Minister of the Substitute Civil House, Miriam Belchior, and the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad. To end the agenda at 5 pm, Lula will deliver the PEC of Public Security, also at the Planalto Palace.
At 9:30 am, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad participates in the opening of the event “CNN Talks Money: New Economic Order”.
Gabriel Galipolo, president of the Central Bank, has appointments in Washington, DC, on Wednesday (23). He will meet with Michael Barr, from the Federal Reserve, and with Gita Gopinath of the IMF. He will also attend IMF meetings and, at night, will be at the G20 central finance ministers and presidents. All events are closed to the press.
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In the US, Fed Governor Waller and the presidents of St. Louis Fed, Musalem; From Cleveland, Hammack; and Chicago, Goolsbee, will talk today.
Brazil
2:30 pm – Currency Flow
USA
10:45 am – Industry PMI (April)
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10:45 am – Services PMI (April)
11am – New Houses (March)
11h30 – Oil stocks (weekly)
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15h – Book Beige do Fed
INTERNATIONAL
Powell
United States President Donald Trump said he has no “intention” of dismissing Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell before his term in front of the US Central Bank is over next year.
“I would like to see him be a little more active about his idea of reducing interest rates,” added the president. “This is the perfect time to lower interest rates.”
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New tariffs
The US imposed up to 3,521% rates on solar equipment imported from Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand, after investigation point out subsidies and below cost sales. The measure seeks to protect local manufacturers such as Hanwha Q Cells and First Solar, but may cost renewable energy projects in the country. Tariffs add up to other recent commercial restrictions and reflect the effort to contain the Chinese influence in the global solar chain. Affected Asian companies, such as solar and Jinko Solar, already seek production alternatives outside Asia. By 2023, the US imported $ 12.9 billion from these countries.
Negotiations
The White House said on Tuesday that the US is positively advancing in the negotiations of a possible trade agreement with China. The information was shared by press secretary Karoline Leavitt after conversation with the president. In addition, the US government says it has received proposals from commercial agreements from 18 countries and this week authorities such as Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick participate in meetings with representatives of 34 nations to discuss commercial topics.
Impact
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced the forecast of global growth to 2.8% by 2025, after increasing the US imposed trade tariffs. The report points to severe impacts on world trade, with expected growth of only 1.7% in the sector. The American economy was projected from 2.7% to 1.8%. Already China went from 4.6% to 4%. Brazil was less affected, adjusting 2.2% to 2%. The IMF warns of high risks and calls for stability in trade policies.
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ECONOMY
Inflation
Central Bank President Gabriel Galipolo said on Tuesday (22) that the depreciation of the Real pressures food inflation, due to the strong correlation between the exchange rate and the cost of rural production. According to him, a 10% devaluation in the real raises the inflation of food to 1.4 point. In March, the IPCA rose 0.56%, with food and drinks accounting for 45% of the index. Galipole also warned of the effects of the US trade war. The scenario, according to him, is of uncertainty and requires structural reforms.
INSS
The first installment of the 13th of the INSS begins to be paid on Thursday (24) to 34.2 million beneficiaries. The deposit runs until May 8th and follows the payment of the April benefit. They first receive insured with a minimum wage income (R $ 1,518). Already who receives above will have the payment then. Recent retirees and sick pay benefits receive proportional values. The second installment will be paid between May 26 and June 6, with possible IR discount.
Coffee
The coffee crop of Brazil in 2025 and 2026 should retreat between 3% and 6.4% compared to the previous cycle, according to Rabobank and Itaú BBA. Arabica should fall up to 13.6% because of the dry climate, while the robust tends to grow, pulled for high productivity. Rabobank projects 62.8 million bags, and Itaú BBA, 64.4 million. Conilon’s harvest has already begun in the Holy Spirit. Despite the drought, the return of rains in March brought some relief. Experts warn of the weather in the coming months, which can impact both harvesting and next flowering.
POLICY
Refusal
Federal Deputy Pedro Lucas Fernandes (União Brasil-MA) declined the invitation to be the new Minister of Communications, in place of Juscelino Filho, who left office. His name had been announced by the minister of the presidency’s Institutional Relations Secretariat, Gleisi Hoffmann, on April 10, after the meeting between the deputy and President Lula.
In a note published on social networks, the parliamentarian said he can contribute more to the country as leader of the Union Brazil bench in the House of Representatives.
Without benefits
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has criticized US trade policy, stating that it benefits neither the Americans nor the rest of the world. During lunch with Chilean President Gabriel Boric, Lula emphasized the importance of multilateralism and negotiation, however challenging. His statements arise in the context of Donald Trump’s tariffs on countries, including Brazil and China. Lula also stressed that he does not want Brazil to get involved in a new cold war, being forced to choose between the US and China.
Free
Lula also said that Brazil should not be involved in a new cold war and should not be forced to choose between the United States or China. In conversation with Boric, he reaffirmed his defense of multilateralism and free trade, highlighting the importance of maintaining good relations with both countries. He emphasized the need to negotiate and establish partnerships with all countries. These statements come in a context of commercial tensions, with US President Donald Trump, imposing fares that especially affects Brazil and China.
Revision
Vice President Geraldo Alckmin has announced that the government will revise the ex-Tariff regime, which allows the reduction of import taxes for products without national equivalent. According to him, the measure aims to strengthen Brazilian industry, ensuring exemption only for items that are not produced in the country. “What we do not manufacture, we zero the tax to import and the industry grow,” he said. The review seeks to clearly separate the products that should receive the benefit. The regime applies mainly to capital, informatics and telecommunications goods.
ACCEPTED COMPLAINT
The first class of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) accepted on Tuesday (22) the complaint against six investigated for participation in the attempted coup after the elections of 2022, making them defendants for crimes as an attempt to abolish the democratic rule of law and coup. Rapporteur Alexandre de Moraes said there was “sufficient evidence” to open criminal action. Among the accused are former PRF director Silvinei Vasques and former Bolsonaro advisor Filipe Martins. The next stage will be the instruction of the process, with testimonials and test collection. There is no date for the trial yet.
Rapporteur
The president of the CCJ of the House, Deputy Paulo Azi (Union-BA), assigned Alfredo Gaspar (Union-AL) as a rapporteur of the request to suspend the criminal action against Deputy Alexandre Ramagem (PL-RJ), defendant for attempted coup in 2022. The request was filed by PL. Gaspar, ally of Bolsonaro and former attorney, also signed the urgent request for the amnesty project to the January 8 convicts. The opinion will be voted on the commission and, if approved, will follow the plenary. The House may bar criminal actions against parliamentarians for crimes committed after diploma.
If it was at your house?
STF Minister Alexandre de Moraes criticized amnesty requests to those involved in the acts of January 8. During trial of the complaint against core 2 of the alleged attempted coup, he compared the violent invasion of the institutions to an attack on a citizen’s own home. “Would you ask these people to ask these people? If it was at your home, would there be? So why, in Brazil, in democracy, the attempt to break the Democratic Rule of Law, so many people defend this?” He asked. Speech responds to the PL project that proposes to amnesty protesters and truckers. The text is still awaiting a decision of the mayor, Hugo Motta. The theme rekindles the tension between Judiciary and Congress.
Commission
The installation of the mixed Congress committees to analyze provisional measures was postponed to this Wednesday (23). Initially scheduled for yesterday, the resumption of collegiate will analyze three MPs, including the one that creates a payroll line for workers with a formal contract. Another commission will evaluate the 9% salary adjustment for the Armed Forces, divided between 2025 and 2026. The return of the commissions marks the end of a deadlock between chamber and Senate. Suspended from the pandemic, the collegiate return after agreement between David Alcolumbre and Hugo Motta.
Amnesty
The PL leader in the House, Deputy Sostenes Cavalcante, is at the head of the articulations to vote on amnesty’s Bill (PL) to those involved in the scammers of January 8, 2023. The federal deputy of Rio de Janeiro was able, within a few days, to gather 264 signatures to urgent the proposal. Which means that the project can be taken to direct vote on the house plenary without having to go through commissions.
According to Cavalcante, “Amnesty is for those who are already condemned.” But the deputy acknowledges that, later, lawyers of defendants who may be convicted can appeal to jurisprudence and that this could include the case of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is affiliated with the PL.
Glauber Braga
Federal Deputy Glauber Braga (PSOL-RJ) appealed to the Constitution and Justice Commission of the Chamber of Deputies (CCJ) against approval of the process of revoking his mandate by the Ethics Council.
In the appeal, the parliamentarian calls for the annulment of the opinion of the rapporteur, Deputy Paulo Magalhães (PSD-BA) and that the suspicion of the rapporteur is declared, for having acted with partiality, according to the deputy.
(With Reuters)
