Javier Milei He is convinced – he says, emphatic – that the dollar will fall below $ 1,000 sooner rather than later. And that only there Cwill vary dollars for reservations of the Central Bank.
“All monetary factors push so that the exchange rate falls. If you fall to the band’s floor, I have to start buying dollars. All indicators of the equation indicate that the dollar has to fall, “said the head of state.
For the agreement signed with the Monetary Fund, the BCRA is forced to acquire no less than US $ 4,000 million in the next two months. He has time to meet until June 13.
If you don’t, The IMF will pay the agreement breaking. Hence the presidential word acquires a special weight.
The agreement with the agency also gives the possibility that the Central Bank buys dollars in the middle of the exchange band. But Milei insists that he will only do it when the green ticket is worth $ 1,000.
Does it say it by intimate conviction or, simply, to put pressure on cereals and agricultural producers, so that this sector liquidates as soon as possible the production of the thick harvest?
“We said that the decline (of the withholdings) was transitory; so if the field has to liquidate, to do it now because in June the withholdings come back,” the head of state pressed.
“That they appreciate that Toto (Minister Luis Caputo) is very contemplative. I would have put the band below to lose more money“Milei completed.
The impact on the departure prices of the stocks: the increases and dart of Javier Milei to the companies
Alien to the expectations of the president himself, from a dollar that drops to the floor of the exchange band, Some of the leading companies already modified their price lists.
Two days after the devaluation, There were increases of between 5% and 12% in basic products of the family basket.
The greatest adjustments were given in Oils and baked productsboth dependent on dollar raw materials. Among the bakeries there were increases in noodles, flours, pasta, lacted bread and breadcrumbs.
They also adjusted coffee prices (+12%) and in Yerba, with an average increase of 5%.
Some of these dynamics were already noticing from previous weeks. From the companies they argue that it was for the temporary decline of the withholdings and also for the expectation of a devaluationsomething that finally occurred after the weekend, although to a lesser extent than expected by the financial market.
The president was annoying with the companies that quickly modified the price lists. “They will break,” he presagedbecause these companies will lose sales.
It was even further in his vision: “The products will be put in the ortho,” said Alejandro Fantino in an interview.
What inflation the market provides for April and May
Some of the economic consultants who weekly monitor the evolution of prices have already rectified their estimates for this month and also for May.
It was the case of Ferreres & Associates. For this month, the consultant provides an IPC from between 3.5% and 4%. And 4% for next month.
The case of Eco Go It looks similar. For April, Marina Dal Poggetto Talk about inflation of 3.8%although the economist clarifies that this projection could be modified according to the dynamics of prices in the middle of the exchange jump. For May, Eco Go projects an IPC closer to 5%.
We must not forget that the jump of the dollar was mid -month, and the impact on the index will be distributed between April and May.
“The impact will be moderate”indicates the economist of the Mediterranean Foundation Jorge Vasconcelos.
In the analysis of economists, he plays that this time, unlike other devaluations, the government shows a fiscal and monetary order that did not exist on previous opportunities. And that reality can have a positive impact on the expectations of price trainers.
It is clear that Milei thinks that the dollar has more to go down than to get from the $ 1,200 yesterday’s closure in the wholesale market.
However, forward, what happens with the inflationary dynamics is also relevant, given the ceiling of the exchange band of $ 1,400.
An IPC that is kept above the 3% In the next two months -something totally possible in the current context- will leave, again, the less competitive real exchange rate: Do not forget that the evolution of the band above – now at $ 1,400 – runs with a monthly rise of just 1%.
That is why the government needs inflation to find its roof as soon as possible. And that will depend on what happens with the price of the “market” dollar starting now.
