The Dutchman Mark Rutte is the new NATO Secretary General. What is he known for besides his clear support for Ukraine?
For ten years, Jens Stoltenberg (65) was at the head of the most powerful defense alliance in the world. This Tuesday, the Norwegian will hand over the office of NATO Secretary General to the former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte (57). Will the alliance change under the new leadership? At one point or another this cannot be ruled out.
In contrast to heads of state and government such as Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Stoltenberg has been one of the politicians over the past two years who has persistently advocated for the greatest possible support for Ukraine with Western weapons systems. He was of the opinion that in the current situation it would be better, in case of doubt, to help Ukraine than to fulfill alliance goals for the supply of weapons and ammunition. Stoltenberg also argued in a similarly pro-Ukrainian manner in the discussions about a concrete NATO membership perspective for Ukraine.
Will Rutte continue on this course? Ukraine can hope for that. The Dutchman is influenced by the MH-17 disaster in the summer of 2014. At that time, a Russian missile caused a passenger plane to crash over eastern Ukraine. Almost 200 were Dutch among the 298 victims. Rutte had recently made it clear several times that, in his view, Ukraine should be able to use Western weapons systems against Russia without restrictions. During his term as Prime Minister, it was also decided to provide Ukraine with Dutch F-16 fighter jets. Taking into account its economic strength, the Netherlands under his leadership was also one of the countries that provided the most military support to Ukraine.
The new job is likely to be a particularly big challenge for Rutte if Donald Trump returns to the White House after the US presidential election in November. Statements by the Republican in the past had raised doubts as to whether the US would fully commit to providing assistance under his leadership. During his term in office from 2017 to 2021, Trump had repeatedly complained about what he considered to be too low defense spending by European allies and at times even threatened that the USA would leave the alliance.
When it comes to Trump, Rutte is stepping into big shoes: Stoltenberg earned great recognition during Donald Trump’s first term in office because he always managed to mediate and appease. Would Rutte be able to do that too? The conditions could be worse. During a meeting with Rutte in 2019, Trump said he and Rutte had become friends. He described relations between the Netherlands and the USA as better than ever before.
Whether Trump is elected or not, a top issue for Rutte will be wooing higher defense spending from European allies. However, Rutte is considered to have little credibility on this issue. Under him as Prime Minister, the Netherlands only spent 1.2 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defense in 2018. NATO’s so-called two percent target could only just be achieved this year.
During Stoltenberg’s term in office, NATO countries’ defense spending increased significantly. However, there were really big spurts in investment after the start of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, and Stoltenberg made it clear in one of his last speeches that, in his opinion, two percent of GDP would not be enough to guarantee secure defense and deterrence.
There are significantly more question marks when it comes to Rutte’s relations with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Will the Dutchman manage to keep his conflicts with the two of them under control? The relationship between Rutte and Erdogan as well as Rutte and Orban is considered extremely difficult. As Prime Minister, after the introduction of an anti-homosexual law in Hungary, Rutte made it clear that he currently sees no place for the country in the EU. Rutte took issue with Erdogan, among other things, because he criticized bans on election campaign appearances for Turkish government members in the Netherlands.
Whether Rutte becomes as successful a Secretary General as Stoltenberg will ultimately depend on whether he sees himself as a representative of all the heads of state and government of the NATO countries. As a military superpower, the USA sets the tone in NATO, but the consensus principle ensures that any other ally can also veto decisions. The main task of the Secretary General of NATO is therefore to coordinate the political coordination processes between the Allies and to ensure that a consensus can be reached even on difficult issues.
