Could an end to the traffic light government change something in the country? The Union has little scope for changes.
A few news from Germany from the last few days: The economy will shrink again in 2024. A 0.1 percent recession is not the world, but in a country that is lacking self-confidence, that appears restless, even unpredictable, and tired of the burden of change, much that would be shaken off under better circumstances matters.
Other countries are doing better economically, for example France and the USA, including China. The economy is growing there. One might hope that this is a temporary effect, but we suspect that the reasons could be deeper.
Gerhard Spörl has always been interested in global political events and changes, which of course also affect Germany’s role in the international structure. He worked in leading positions in “Zeit” and “Spiegel”, was a correspondent in the USA at times and now writes books, preferably on historical topics.
Next: Significantly fewer German cars are being exported. The optimism surrounding electric cars has evaporated for many reasons. VW is also thinking about lifting the employment security that has existed for 30 years, meaning 30,000 jobs are at risk. Bayer has fallen out with the glyphosate company Monsanto. BASF is sitting on a mountain of debt with declining equity.
Dips in the economy, whether national or international, are part of capitalism. Economies are changing and this creates gaps in industry and companies – some are keeping up, others are lagging behind. However, if an export country like Germany does not take part in modernization, i.e. digitalization, in a timely manner, permanent distortions can arise. When too many big players become ailing and entire industries, such as chemicals, suffer from high energy prices, things become bitter.
In such serial crises, attention turns to the federal government. In general, the overestimation of the possibilities of politics is particularly pronounced in Germany. However, the government, including the traffic lights, is not causally responsible for either golden times or leaden times. First comes the economy, then politics, that’s how it is in market-based democracies.
The CDU already understood what follows from this under Konrad Adenauer: We are building up the welfare state, but in moderation; otherwise we give the economy what it needs. The FDP is, especially today, a CDU in shrinkage: the debt brake is inviolable, tax relief for the economy and free travel for fast citizens.
The fact that the Greens are twinned with the SPD in their DNA can be seen in their relationship with the state. In other words, both parties were in their element when the pandemic and Ukraine invasion opened the floodgates. The state supported companies and companies that were in a tailspin, redirected the energy supply and helped where it had to. The differences with the FDP only had a destructive effect when the Federal Constitutional Court closed the floodgates. Since then nothing has happened and the government’s reputation has plummeted.
Economics is not everything, but without economics everything is nothing. Economics also exacerbates cultural conflicts such as those over migration and asylum. In this field, the traffic light suddenly became busy because it heard the growing discontent of the voting citizens. It was also overdue and will therefore not be credited to her. This identity crisis might be less toxic without an economic crisis.
What to do? Will anything seriously change if the FDP blows up the government? She would have done it long ago if she could expect anything from it. Will anything change if Boris Pistorius becomes chancellor? The mood, yes, but not the SPD, torn as it is. And who would believe that harmony would suddenly break out in the traffic lights under a new chancellor?
In addition, the Greens will become even weaker if things happen, as they seem to happen. In all likelihood it is now their turn to split off. It may well be that the young Greens who have left the party will found a left-wing ecological, anti-capitalist party. The BSW has shown that you can be successful with such start-ups. And of course the AfD, which began as the meat of the CDU’s flesh. Only the FDP is immune to halving, thinned out as it is.
The CDU should take a very close look at these conditions before winning the election, which is what we can assume. It would be nice if the relief didn’t just last for the blink of an eye because the Scholz/Lindner/Habeck trio has been replaced. But this double crisis of the economy and migration is treacherous and can easily consume a new government under Friedrich Merz.
