The economy is not going well and the job market is developing worse than expected. Nevertheless, numerous Ukrainians find jobs in Germany.
It was supposed to be a breakthrough on the labor market for the approximately 900,000 Ukrainian refugees of working age. Almost a year ago, in October 2023, Labor Minister Hubertus Heil (SPD) announced the “job turbo”. The goal: Even those who have little knowledge of German should be able to get into work as quickly as possible through the job centers; further training and language courses should continue in parallel.
It is now clear: politicians, employers and the job centers were unable to ignite a real boost, and not everyone has a job – and yet the program went better than some people expected. This emerges from a report from the Ministry of Labor to the Budget Committee of the Bundestag, which is available to t-online. “Spiegel” had previously reported.
It says that the “Jobturbo” measures are having an effect. “Despite the current weak economic development, the employment of Ukrainian nationals, but also of people from the most important countries of origin for asylum, has increased significantly.”
At the same time, the report states that even more refugees could have taken up jobs if the currently stagnating economy were doing better. “The gloomy economic development reduces the chances of taking up employment for all unemployed people, including refugees,” says an accompanying letter from Heil’s ministry.
t-online summarizes the most important findings from the interim balance sheet for the Bundestag. The numbers are based on statistics from the summer.
- From October 2023 to August 2024 are around, according to the report 50,000 unemployed Ukrainians in work came. That was 66 percent more than in the same period last year. The rate of withdrawal from basic security benefits was 3.2 percent in August 2024.
- During the same period there were also changes a further 96,000 unemployed people from the eight most important countries of asylum origin (including Syria, Afghanistan) from basic security into a job. That was 19 percent more than in the same period last year. The attrition rate was 4.2 percent in August 2024.
- Striking in comparison: At Citizenship benefit recipients with German citizenship the attrition rate fell over the same period from 2.6 to 2.3 percent. This means: While large numbers of unemployed refugees found jobs despite economic difficulties and found their way out of unemployment more often relative to the group as a whole, the German long-term unemployed were less able to do so than in the previous year.
Overall, the number of Ukrainians working in Germany grew to 259,000 people by June 2024, which is 69,000 more than in June 2023. Of these, 207,000 had jobs subject to social security contributions, and around 52,000 people were marginally employed.
Of the nationals from the other eight most important countries of origin for asylum, 695,000 people were currently employed (plus 70,000 people), with 592,000 in jobs subject to social insurance contributions and around 103,000 in marginal employment.
“This means that 79 percent of the total growth in employees subject to social insurance contributions compared to the previous year was accounted for by Ukrainian nationals and asylum seekers TOP 8,” the report says. Which in turn means: The labor market as a whole is currently anything but smooth – and yet the job centers are still managing to place refugees in work. So well, in fact, that they account for the lion’s share of the increase in people who have new regular jobs.
This can also be expressed in other figures listed in the report: Since the official start of the “job turbo” at the beginning of this year alone, the number of Ukrainians employed subject to social security contributions has increased by around 41,000 people, an increase of 25 percent. The number of people from the top 8 countries of origin grew by at least 26,000 (plus 5 percent) in the same period – while employment in Germany fell by 1 percent overall (minus 264,000 jobs).
Most recently, the latest figures from the Federal Employment Agency (BA) also showed that the labor market is hardly gaining momentum after the usual summer lull. The so-called autumn revival is largely missing due to the weak economy.
In September, the number of unemployed fell only slightly compared to the previous month, by 66,000 to 2.806 million people. That is 179,000 more than at the same time last year, the BA announced at the end of last week. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 points to 6.0 percent in September compared to August. BA boss Andrea Nahles therefore expects that the number of unemployed in Germany could soon break the 3 million barrier.
In view of this, it is almost surprising that the “job turbo” has had such a big impact at all. At the same time, if, contrary to expectations, the situation on the labor market does not improve noticeably, it is unlikely that the costs of receiving citizen’s benefit for Ukrainians will fall significantly. The federal government had hoped for this effect, not least in view of the tightly stitched federal budget that the members of the Bundestag are negotiating in these weeks.
