Behind him Exchange Standing And the agreement with the IMF, the survey between national and foreign economists was published more anticipated by the City, in which 40 analysts project The value of the dollar at the end of December.
After the measures announced last Friday, where it was established that the exchange rate price It will move in a band between $ 1,100 to $ 1,400, which will adjust at a rate of 1% per month, the American ticket is quoted around DE $ 1,230. While in the Wholesale Square is quoting around $ 1,200which represents an increase of around 12% compared to what was worth until the end of last week.
Based on these parameters, the international consultant Focuseconomics The survey has just been published, which participated in more than 40 national and abroad banks and consultant analysts, which reveals that the market provides for an average price for the dollar of $ 1,306 at the end of the year. This implies that, from now on until December, it could rise around 6%.
“The agreement with the IMF will reinforce international reserves, which allows the government to lift most capital controls and abolish the mobile exchange rate from mid -April. These measures are a good omen for private investment, but they also entail the risk of strong currency depreciation and a consequent rebound of inflationary pressures, “says Focuseconomics in its report.
In this regard, Wait for GDP growth in 2025“It should be more than double the Latin American average, promoted by the financial support of the IMF, the reduction of inflationary pressures and interest rates, and the lowest government intervention in the economy.”
With the threat that the dry climate limits agricultural production, the panelists relieved foresee a Expansion of the GDP of 4.8% in 2025, which represents an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month.
Expected dollar price
According to the consensus of economists relieved at the beginning of April, The wholesale exchange rate is expected to reach $ 1,306.4 for the end of the yearwhich represents a rise of 12 pesos compared to the projections last March, which were $ 1,294.
It should be remembered that the estimates presented at the end of last year by the Minister of Economy, Luis “Toto” Caputo, in it 2025 budget, They were of a price of the wholesale dollar of $ 1,207 for December.
If $ 1,306 projected by the focuseeconomics, the wholesale exchange rate would increase from now 6.2%, and throughout 2025 it would accumulate a 26.6%increase.
A level that would be below the inflation planned by the same analysts for this year, since they provide an average increase of 42.9% in consumer prices, No changes to the estimates of the previous month.
It is that economists consider that “it will continue to decrease in the future, thanks to a high comparison base, fiscal moderation, deregulation and reduction of import restrictions.”
Economists with new projections for dollar to December.
It should be clarified that the survey was conducted previous days To the announcement of the elimination of the stocks, but it was framed within the prelude to the announcement of the agreement already stipulated with the IMF, for more than US $20 billion.
Therefore, Not all economists had planned that abrupt modification of exchange policy for now, but some of them thought it was going to be held after the mid -term elections.
As the thermometer of this situation, in the operations that are generated in the Future market and Matba-Rofex optionsthe negotiated price for the wholesale exchange rate By the end of December it is $ 1,456, Around 116 pesos more than stipulated last month ($ 1,340) and about $ 150 more of the Focuseconomics consensus.
Dollar and economists, price for price
Regarding the prognosis made by each economist by the end of December, the dispersion of the forecasts remains wide, since it is located in a range between a minimum of $ 1,060 to a maximum of $ 1,710 per wholesale dollar.
The highest prices stipulated for the official wholesale exchange rate indicated by analysts by the end of the year, are led by Analytica Consulta ($ 1,710), Empiria Consultores ($ 1,627), Eco Go ($ 1,585) and Econviews, with 1,527 pesos.
That is, all national consultants who advanced to some correction of government exchange policy. Likewise, several of them, before the consultation of iprofesionalthey affirmed that They will monitor these days to the market to analyze what are the new estimates planned for the end of the year.
“We expected an exit from the stocks In early May, so we estimate a dollar of $ 1,412 for the end of the year “he states Fausto Spotorno, OJF economist (Orlando Ferreres), to iprofesional.
And he adds: “We We imagine a calm scenario In the coming months, and there more moved for the elections and end of the year, but not too higher. “
Meanwhile, Fernando BaerQuantum economist (Marx), which in the focuseeconomics foresaw $ 1,191, affirms that post lifting of the stocks, “logically, we change the projections and hope that it will be above that At the end of the year, at levels of $ 1,250 to 1,300 pesos. “
In this way, it indicates that by the end of the year, There may be “some minor appreciation, and doing something from Catch up to go to those levels. “
In this line, Camilo Tiscorniaeconomist and director of C&T advisors, consider that Projections of the $ 1,174 report will be “adjustedbut we still want Wait a little to see how the market is accommodatedbecause at this time it is all very volatile. “
Likewise, he believes that “There will not be a very large inflationary impact Because I think there are things that have already been adjusted before this ad, and in terms of exchange rate you have to see. One might think that from now on until June the harvest will enter, which helps to give peace of mind, but then, near the elections, in the third quarter there is a little more tension. And at the end of the year we will have to see a bit based on what will happen to the elections. “
