The Buenos Aires bag On Tuesday, its upward rally operates and operates with a decrease of 1.3%, after the strong advance registered on the eve, driven by the new agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the announcement of the end of the exchange rate.
Within the leading panel, the main falls are headed by Telecom Argentina (-3%), byma (-1.9%), Pampa Energía (-1.7%), YPF (-1.6%) and Ternium (-1.5%), reflecting a profits after the strong prior impulse.
In tune with the local market, The ADRS of Argentine companies that quote on Wall Street also operate in negative terrain. Among the most prominent decreases are YPF (-3.3%), Loma Negra (-1.9%), South Gas Transporter (-1.8%), Telecom Argentina (-1.5%) and Central Puerto (-1.1%).
In the debt market, the Sovereign bonds in dollars They show majority of falls, with setbacks of up to 1.9%, led by the Global 2046. They are followed by the 2035 bonar, with a decrease of 0.7%. In contrast, the titles in pesos adjusted by CER record rates of up to 0.8%, with the TX26 at the head.
As a key data of the day, the United States Treasury Secretary, Scott Besentheld meetings with Argentine government officials in Buenos Aires. In an official statement, he underlined Trump’s commitment to strengthen the bilateral link and ratified the political support to the local economic agenda. However, in an interview with Bloomberg, Besent ruled out a direct bilateral credit line with Argentina, although he left open the possibility of advancing in reciprocal commercial measures.
A new scenario for Argentine assets
After maintaining a defensive position since February, from Adcap Grupo Financiero adopted a more constructive vision of the Argentine assets. The analysts of the stock market society identified key catalysts that support this change of focus: the recent agreement reached with the International Monetary Fund and the implementation of a new exchange regime. Both factors are seen as elements that could significantly boost the recovery of the country’s financial instruments.
Within this new scenario, broker specialists stressed that the Central Bank It could begin a period of strong accumulation of reservations. This dynamic, in turn, would be essential to meet the objectives agreed for June, which would grant additional support to the bond market. In this context, Adcap expects the behavior of sovereign bonds to improve, especially in the short term.
One of the instruments recommended by the ADCAP team are the GD35 bonds, They see with greater recovery potential compared to the most conservative GD30. According to their projections, the return of the GD35 could reach 24%, compared to the 17% expected for the GD30, assuming that prices return to the maximum levels observed in January.
This change of vision does not imply only a strategy based on general optimism, but on a series of specific data that, for ADCAP, show a more favorable path for Argentine debt. The structural improvements in the exchange scheme and the Alignment with the IMF They create conditions for investors to reconsider their exposure to local risk.
Bonds in dollars: the GD35 takes prominence
ADCAP experts recommend an active position in sovereign bonds in dollars, especially the Global 2035 (GD35)to which they assign a growth potential of 33%. This recommendation is based on the forecast that the Central Bank may resume the purchase of dollars thanks to the changes introduced in the exchange regime, such as the elimination of the “dollar Blend” and the bands that restricted the movement of the exchange rate.
For broker analysts, these changes allow visualizing a more stable scenario on the exchange front, which Reduces the risk of loss of reserves and improves the profile of foreign currency assets. They also consider that the government could prioritize the accumulation of reservations above price control, which would result in benefits for sovereign bond holders.
In line with this analysis, Adcap expects the GD35 and GD30 bonds They return to performance levels close to 11%, which would imply profits of 24%and 17%, respectively. This projection takes into account the current international context, including the expansion of the Spread of High Performance Bonds (HY), which has increased by 125 basic points since January.
In addition, they closed their recommendation on the conservative SWAP strategy between the Bopreal 1C and the GD2030. As they explained, the expectation of a lower difference between these assets reduces the convenience of the SWAP and reinforces the thesis of an overcoming of the GD30. Thus, the longer term bonds take prominence within the recommended portfolio.
Bonds in pesos: preference for inflation adjusted instruments
At the level of the debt in local currency, Adcap specialists expressed their preference for bonds Cerwhich adjust their capital for inflation. In their analysis, these instruments offer an attractive combination of coverage against the rise in prices and opportunities for capital appreciation, in an environment in which the exchange rate would tend to stabilize.
From the stock market society they stressed that, although the bonds adjusted by inflation have already surpassed the Fixed rate bonds since Januarythe market still does not completely reflect the potential impact of higher inflation. Meanwhile, implicit prices barely discount a 9%increase, which, at Adcap’s discretion, represents an entry opportunity.
Analysts detailed that even with conservative estimates of real rates, CER bonds should show better performance than dollars. This is because the differential between both types of bonds was located at 300 basic points, which leaves margin for a significant improvement of yields in weights adjusted by inflation.
According to ADCAP estimates, the potential of bonds Cer It is between 36% and 43%, depending on the duration of the bonus. This projection is aligned with the expectation that consumer prices transfer could be higher than the market currently discounts, which would favor the resilience of these assets against inflationary shocks.
What happens in the world markets
US actions started Tuesday’s day with slight increases, amid the uncertainty generated by the advertisements and announcements of President Donald Trump around commercial policy. The S&P 500 advanced 0.2%, the Dow Jones It rose 0.3%, while Nasdaq, with a strong technological component, earned 0.1%.
On Monday, the main stock market rates had regained after a week marked by a strong volatility. The impulse came after the Trump administration announced that it would postpone the application of tariffs to key electronic products, while analyzing possible exemptions for the automotive industry, which triggered the actions of the sector.
However, the panorama remains confusing. While the government hints up for certain sectors, it also advances in the implementation of New tariffs On the imports of semiconductors and pharmaceutical products, adding tension to the commercial scene.
Given this mixed signal scenario, investors remain attentive to how the Tariff climb It could impact corporate profits and companies projections for the next quarters.
