For many investors, accompanying economic graphics and indicators is sufficient to make decisions. However, for Arctic manager Ivan Barbosa, the geopolitical scenario is an essential factor in global investment analysis. During his participation in the Stock Pickers program, presented by Lucas Collazo and Henrique Esteter, Barbosa highlighted how political and historical events directly influence financial markets and can determine the success or failure of an investment strategy.
Barbosa emphasized that while US investors often ignore the macroeconomic and geopolitical context, relying on the mantra “Never Bet Against America”, this approach cannot be applied generally to other countries. “It’s very difficult to say ‘Never Bet Against Brazil’ or ‘Never Bet Against Russia,” he said, citing the uncertainties and risks that vary according to the region.
A clear example of the consequences of ignoring geopolitics was the Socialist Revolution in Russia, which resulted in the closing of the stock exchange and the nationalization of 100% of business. “If you had money in the Russian bag at that time, you lost everything,” Barbosa explained, emphasizing the importance of evaluating political risks before allocating capital.
Worldwide order
The manager also addressed how the current geopolitical organization of the world was shaped after World War II. In the postwar period, Europe was devastated, and the United States took the lead in the continent’s reconstruction, while seeking to contain the influence of communism, promoted by the Soviet Union.
One of the main decisions that emerged from this period was the Bretton Woods agreement, which established the dollar as an international reference currency. Prior to that, most coins were gold -backed.
Maritime security
Another critical factor in the formation of the global economy was the US commitment to ensure the safety of sea routes. Prior to this agreement, international trade was affected by pirate attacks and military actions of enemy nations. “The United States built the world’s most powerful navy to protect international seas and ensure that trade could flow freely,” Barbosa explained.
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With this initiative, the US also opened its market to allow fragile economies, such as European and Asian, could recover and develop. This policy helped China emerge as an economic power, as its growth was driven by US market demand.
Global capitalism
With the fall of the Soviet Union and the collapse of communism as a viable economic model, global markets have undergone a new transformation. “Today, there is no longer the communist economic logic. Russia and China have opened their markets and adopted capitalist practices, even if they do not label as such,” said Barbosa.
This period also led to the creation of global organizations such as UN and NATO, which were structured to maintain international stability. The United States, unlike previous empires, chose to create a more participatory global governance, where other countries have a voice, even though the greatest actors maintain greater influence.
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The great learning, according to Barbosa, is that the investor needs to understand history and geopolitical dynamics before making decisions. “Studying what happened in the past helps us understand the risks of the present,” he concluded.
