Maria Irene Jordão, Global Analyst at XP, participated in the program Morning Call from XPand commented on concerns about the US economy amid the imposition of tariffs adopted by US President Donald Trump.
“We saw over the past week that the PCE (Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenses), which is the favorite index of the Federal Reserve (Fed, Central Bank of the USA), came just above expectations,” he explained.
Deceleration
On the other hand, according to her, the American economy is in a slowdown and with the female fears this can press inflation in the short term, as well as the process of slowing the American economy to walk faster.
She recalls that the Trump government announcement of reducing 25% over all vehicles and car parts imported United States can be a major booster of local inflation.
For the analyst, the concerns have increased about the likelihood of a recession next year and how Federal Reserve will react the current conjuncture, with the American economy slowing and persistently higher inflation.
“Still, inflation should weigh more than economic activity in this balance because, despite this increase in the likelihood of recession, it is not yet the base scenario, but deceleration,” he said.
Continues after advertising
Interest
She points out that there is already expectation of interest cuts by the end of the year, among market analysts, increasing slightly, predicting the deceleration of the economy.
“It also rose to about 30% the likelihood of recession in the United States in the next 12 months,” he said.
Despite the scenario, Maria Irene Jordão said the XP continues to project the scenario of no interest cuts by the end of the year by the Fed, reflecting what was seen from the fomc (Federal Open Market Committee, the US Monetary Policy Committee), when a larger amount of members of the committee have expected from a court of interest by the end of the year.
