After several complex weeks, where currency drain hit the reserves strongly, this Tuesday The IMF dollars arrived and led to relief to the coffers of the Central Bank (BCRA).
The first disbursement of the background was made effective by US $ 12,000 million And gross reserves ended the day in U $ 36,799 million.
The Central Bank did not intervene in the market, on the second day without stocks to the dollar
On Monday, the BCRA international reserves had fallen $ 421 million au $ 24,305 million, for last Friday’s sales. However, as on the first day of the week, this Tuesday the central did not intervene in the exchange market, which had the official retail dollar without variation and closed at $ 1,230.
ELPRIMER DISBBACE FOR US $1,000 million from the IMF is part of the agreement for U $20,000 million confirmed last week by the Government. As he pointed out Luis Caputo, Other US $ 2,000 million will arrive within the next 60 days YU $ S1,000 million more for the rest of the year. Agreements with other international organizations such as the World Bank, the IDB, a repo and the renewal of the SWAP with China were also announced.
In that scenario, during its national chain, Javier Milei estimated: “The IMF program and World Bank and a repo, amounts to U $ 32,000 millionUS $ 19.6 billion will be disbursed immediately. For Mayreservations will be around U $50,000 million. With this level of reserves, we can support all existing weights in our economy. “
As the Government announced, the first IMF It will be destined to cancel non -transferable letters, which would leave the net reserves close to zero. A second disbursement of U $ 2,000 million is expected for Junesubject to the fulfillment of the economic program, which establishes an accumulation goal of US $ 4,000 million in net reserves towards June 13.
To these funds other US $ 5.6 billion from international organizations would be added, together with a New Repo agreement which will complement the one already signed in January for US $ 1 billion. According to ecolatin calculations, by the end of 2025 the free availability disbursements would amount to $ 23,100 million, which is equivalent to almost all the current gross reserves. This external mattress will be essential to sustain the transition to the new exchange regime.
According to the IMF: the difficult goal of reserves that the Government must comply with
According to the agreement with the Monetary Fund, the Central Bank has US $ 4,900 million of negative net reserves and the June 13 must have only US $ 5 billion of negative balance, he September 30 plans to keep a red of U $ 600 million and the December 31 should reach positive net reserves of U $ 4000 million dollars.
These are the first quantitative goals. The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, and the president schedule to reach those goals for a double effect. To the free the exchange rate and more flexible the exchange rate, The most expensive dollar is a strong incentive to the field to liquidate exports for the greatest profitability with low retentions.
On the other hand, such as exchange band It is set between 1000 and 1400 pesos per dollarthe Central Bank will not detach from dollars unless the currency exceeds the upper band, and then it will not be tempted to maintain a low exchange rate, according to what the monetary fund imposed in the agreement.
For all that, Milei was forced to fulfill the goal.
In exchange for partially leaving the exchange rate, The IMF promised to support Milei’s new economic plan with a support of US $20 billionof which it will disburse US $ 15,000 million free availability. But the first US $ 12,000 million They will arrive immediately, U $ 2,000 million They will be associated with the first review, according to the agreement, and to comply with the goal, the government has to accumulate US $ 4,400 million of reservations in the BCRA. The last section of US $ 1 billion will be disbursed before the end of the year 2025, as agreed with the IMF.
