The vice president of the United States Kamala Harris, Democratic candidate for the White House, continues with the same advantage as in recent days in the general average of the surveys consulted this Monday: two points ahead of the former president of the United States Donald Trump, Republican candidate, that reflect the general sentiment of voters in the United States. 34 days before the November 5 electionsHarris would receive 49.3% of the electorate’s favor, while Trump would remain at 47.3% at the national level, according to the general average of the polls. Instead, Trump would win the presidential electiondue to the Electoral College system. He would get more electoral votes, which is what matters in this system in which the winner takes all (the winner of each state takes all the electoral votes of the same state). Trump would win, according to the polls published this Monday, by breaking the Blue Wall (blue wall) Democrat by winning Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, the latest polls show.
In the average of the polls of the undecided states (Arizona, Snowfall, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan), which hold the key to the presidential elections, Trump would win by 0.2 points. In this average there has been a decisive variation: Pennsylvania, the key this year. According to the latest studies, such as Trafalgar Group and Atlas Intel, Trump is ahead of Kamala Harris by three points. Therefore, if we give each candidate the states in which they have an advantage in the polls, Trump would win the elections with 281 electoral votes. Harris would be left with 257 electoral votes.
As you can see in the graph belowKamala Harris and Trump are very close in the battleground states. Harris has fallen in the polls compared to Joe Biden after their disastrous debate on June 27, when they became clear their cognitive problems. On the other hand, it has failed to attract the attention of the working middle class in the swing states. In addition, he has lost support among the Latino vote, which has traditionally voted for the Democratic Party.
Can 2016 be repeated?
Yes, 2016 can be repeated. In that year, Trump won against the polls and political analysts, who always gave Hillary Clinton as winner. They failed in their calculations by not taking into account the Electoral College voting system. Harris needs to win the well-known mandatory blue wall (blue wall), Michigan (15 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes). On the other hand, as previously indicated, Trump, according to the latest polls, has broken it by surpassing Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania. Also, Trump is left with two other undecided states in which he has been ahead in the polls in recent weeks: North Carolina and Georgia with 16 electoral votes each.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump in the popular vote: Clinton got 65,853,514 votes. Trump took 62,984,828. In percentage of votes, Hillary Clinton won with 48.2%. Meanwhile, Donald Trump achieved 46.1%. Instead, Trump swept and became president of the United States because of the Electoral College system. He dyed the map red. He won with 304 electoral votes and Clinton stayed at 227. In 2016, Trump won a historic victory by taking over Democratic fiefdoms such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. Clinton lost Florida and Ohio, which Barack Obama had won. Trump won all of the battleground states at the time: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Nor was Clinton able to hold Virginia, despite the fact that his partner ticket, Tim Kainewas a senator from that state.
For all that, it does not matter to Democratic analysts that Harris is two points ahead in the average of the general polls. They need at least three or four points.
States that Harris has secured
Colorado (10 electoral votes).
Illinois (19).
New Jersey (14).
New York (28)
Oregon (8).
Maine District 1 (1).
Maine (2).
Minnesota (10).
New Mexico (5).
Virginia (13).
States that Trump has secured
Florida (30 electoral votes).
Ohio (17).
Texas (40).
Maine District 2 (1).
Alaska (3).
Iowa (6).
Kansas (6).
Missouri (10).
Mountain (4).
South Carolina (9).
undecided states
Arizona (11). Trump is ahead in the polls.
Georgia (16). Trump is ahead in the polls.
Michigan (15). Kamala Harris has had a minimal sale in opinion polls.
Snowfall (6). Kamala Harris has been ahead, although it is not clear that Trump will lose this state.
North Carolina (16). Trump has surpassed Harris in this state in the latest polls, in which the Democratic vice president is now ahead.
Pennsylvania (19). The state of Pennsylvania is the most populated of the undecided. He has 19 Electoral College votes. It is the most important state in this presidential race. Harris is ahead, according to the latest polls this Friday. The Harris-Walz campaign privately acknowledges that it may lose this state, which Biden won narrowly in 2020 and Hillary Clinton lost in 2016.
Wisconsin (10). Kamala Harris has been ahead in the polls. According to the Democrats’ latest internal polls, Trump surpasses Harris in this state, which would give him victory without needing Pennsylvania.
Some pollsters add to the seven previously mentioned New Hampshire (4) and Nebraska District 2 (1) to the list of undecided.
