Focus, BC and Haddad speeches, and other highlights of this 2nd

The week begins with global markets attentive to the tariffs that US President Donald Trump is expected to announce on Wednesday. The announcement of new commercial measures, as he has done in the past, can generate a movement in markets and exchange rates, with investors with closely observing any new imposition that may affect global trade.

In Brazil, this Monday (31), the economic agenda has the Central Bank disclosing its weekly review of the Focus Bulletin, at 8:25 am. The local market continues to keep an eye on international movements, and Brazilian financial indicators are expected to follow global oscillations. On the other hand, in the United States, the economic agenda follows without relevant data.

Agenda

Nilton José Schneider David, director of monetary policy, participates in the morning of Monday, from 10:30 am to 11:30 am, the live “conjuncture and monetary policy”, promoted by Itaú BBA, with live broadcast on YouTube.

Already Diogo Abry Guillen, director of economic policy, participates in the morning, from 09h30 to 11h, of the 99th quarterly meeting with economists – Group 01 (closed to the press). At 2:30 pm, he gathers with Deutsche Bank economists (closed to the press). Then, at 3:30 pm, there is a hearing with Gustavo Arruda, chief economist, and Raphael Rodrigues, Economist Brazil, (closed to the press). At 19h, he participates in the Cycle of Lectures organized by the Eseg College, in São Paul. The event will be open to the press through broadcast.

Minister Fernando Haddad participates, at 12:30 pm (Brasília time), in a meeting with Luis Vassy, ​​director of Sciences-PE. At 14h (Brasília time), he participates in the conference “10 years after the Paris Agreement: Government in the Climate Age”, which will be broadcast live on YouTube. Then, at 3:30 pm (Brasília time), he attends a dinner in his honor offered by Sciences-PE.

Brazil

8:25 am – Focus (weekly)

USA

10:45 am – ISM: PMI Industrial of Chicago

Germany

9am – Inflation – (March)

China

10:30 pm – PMI Industry (Official) – (March)
10:30 pm – Services PMI (Official) – (March)

International

“Very angry”

Donald Trump claims to be “furious” with the Russian president, Vladimir Putinand which would consider imposing “secondary rates” on Russian oil if a ceasefire with Ukraine Not achieved, NBC News said.

Trump stated that he was “very angry” with Putin’s recent comments, which suggested ways to install a new leadership in Ukraine and ward off President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The information was released by NBC, who cited a telephone interview with Trump on Sunday (30).

Recession in the USA

The prospect of a radical climbing in the global trade war in the coming days almost doubled the likelihood of a recession in the US economy over the next twelve months to about 35%, according to Goldman Sachs.

Trade agreement

On a trip to Vietnam, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) closed new commercial agreements and announced the opening of the Vietnamese market for Brazilian beef during a visit to Hanoi, strengthening the 2025-2030 Action Plan of the Brazil-Vietnam Strategic Partnership. The measure will boost investments from Brazilian refrigerators and consolidate the country as an export platform for Southeast Asia. With bilateral trade already close to US $ 8 billion, the goal is to double the amount by 2030. In addition, agreements were signed in areas such as defense, technology and education, and Brazil seeks to expand exports of higher added value, such as Embraer aircraft.

Economy

Readjustment of Medicines

The Chamber of Regulation of the Medicines Market (CMED) releases, on Monday (31), the list with the new price of drugs sold in pharmacies and drugstores. Law No. 10,742 of 2003, which deals with the regulation of the pharmaceutical sector, provides for the annual readjustment of medicines.

Public debt

Federal public debt rose 3.30% in February, reaching R $ 7,492 trillion, the National Treasury said. Internal debt totaled R $ 7,178 trillion (+3.26%) and the external R $ 314 billion (+4.15%). The increase reflects a record net emission of R $ 165.7 billion and the incorporation of R $ 73.7 billion in interest. The average cost of debt stock rose to 11.57% per year, impacted by Selic’s discharge. In March, future interest rates fell with the basic rate repriction. The liquidity reserve increased to R $ 889 billion, covering 6.66 months of salaries.

Electricity

The electricity charge in Brazil should record a 1.9% increase in April 2025, totaling 83,207 Middle Megawatts (MWM), compared to the same month as 2024, according to the projections of the National Electrical System Operator (ON). Predictions indicate below the historical average in hydroelectric media, especially the reduction of precipitation in various subsystems in the country, at the end of the damp period. The tributary natural energy (ENA) in the Southeast/Midwest should be 67% of the average, in the south of 58%, in the northeast of 24% and in the north of 84%. Southeast/Midwest hydroelectric plant reservoirs are expected to close April with 67.3%, slightly below 67.5% registered on Friday.

Sick

The Péca-de-Step program has more beneficiaries than students enrolled in the public network in at least three cities, located in Bahia, Pará and Minas Gerais, according to Estadão report. The program also includes more than 90% of high school students in at least 15 cities in five states. In addition, there are cases of beneficiaries who appear to have income above that allowed by the program rule that pays scholarship to more needy students.

Cannabis market

Anvisa has started a public consultation to review the rules on the sale and prescription of cannabis -based products in Brazil. The proposal includes allowing the manipulation of cannabidiol (CBD) with 98% purity, expanding the forms of administration (such as oral, sublingual, inhalation and dermatological) and authorizing dental surgeons to prescribe these medicines. The consultation will be open for 60 days to the contributions of the company.

Policy

Lula by Haddad

Economists and financial analysts claim that Lula’s popularity has fallen due to economic challenges, such as high inflation and slow growth, affecting the confidence of Brazilians and investors. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, on the other hand, argues that the government will maintain its course, with measures such as Selic’s elevation to 14.25% to control inflation. Tax reform, he said, seeks to reduce inequalities, with income tax exemption for salary up to R $ 5,000. Despite concerns about the fiscal impact, Haddad believes that reforms are structural and have no connection with the president’s fall in popularity.

Central figure

The former ordinant of orders Mauro Cid, a central figure in the investigation into the alleged coup plot, changed his report five times. This inconsistency will be one of the main arguments of the other defendants’ defenses to contest the accusations in the judgment in the Supreme Federal Court (STF), according to a report in the newspaper O Globo.

Over the course of a year and four months, Cid has given 12 testimonials, in which he expanded the severity of the reports and revised his versions, even pointing out former minister Walter Braga Netto as a key piece at a meeting where actions would have been discussed to generate “social chaos”.

Denied appeal

The first class of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) formed a majority to maintain the conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro for irregular electoral propaganda in the 2022 elections. The decision rejected the defense appeal and reaffirmed the understanding of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) that there was misuse of negative content drive against then-opponent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro’s lawyers’ request was sent for analysis of the virtual plenary last Friday, 28.

Amnesty

In an act emptied on Paulista Avenue this Sunday, 30, Federal Deputy Guilherme Boulos (PSOL-SP) and allies protested against the bill amnesty those convicted of the attacks of January 8, 2023, in Brasilia. During the speech, Boulos said that the ruling base will block the proposal in the House of Representatives and provoked former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who became a defendant for attempted coup.

Abandoned

Federal Deputy Carla Zambelli (PL-SP) said she was sorry for the episode where, with a gun in hand, she chased a man on the eve of the 2022 elections in Sao Paulo. In an interview with “Folha de S.Paulo”, Zambelli, who was one of Jair Bolsonaro’s main allies, also said he felt abandoned by the former president.

Military Salary

The Lula Government (PT) published on Friday (28) a provisional measure that grants a 9% increase in the wages of the military of the Armed Forces. The readjustment will be divided into two installments: the first, 4.5%, will be applied from April 1, 2025, and the second, 4.5%, will be valid from January 1, 2026. The estimated fiscal impact is $ 3 billion. The salary increase was negotiated by the Minister of Defense, José Mucio, and President Lula, meeting a demand from the military since the beginning of the government, but facing resistance from economic ministers.

Judgment

The president of the Supreme Court, Luís Roberto Barroso, said that the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro for the attempted coup d’état should occur later this year to prevent the process from extending to the election year of 2026. Barroso said the date of completion depends on the time required for the presentation of evidence and witnesses. Bolsonaro, who became a defendant with seven allies, denies the accusations and argues that the purpose of the complaint is to prevent him from disputing the 2026 election. The former president remains ineligible by 2030 due to convictions in the TSE.

Privileged forum

After the Supreme Court became Jair Bolsonaro and his allies defendants for coup attempt, a wing of Bolsonarists intensified the resumption of the PEC that proposes the end of the privileged forum. The proposal, which has already passed in the Senate and Commission of the House, wants to restrict the judgment of authorities, as former presidents, only in higher courts. Opposition deputies, such as Sanderson (PL-RS), asked the proposal to be based, stating that this could be used by Bolsonaro’s defense to question his stay as a defendant in the Supreme Court.

In addition to Kassab

In addition to the São Paulo Secretary of Government, Gilberto Kassab, STF Minister Alexandre de Moraes decided to resume investigations and proceedings involving authorities after the Court expanded the scope of the privileged forum. Cases such as former Ministers Geddel Vieira and Ricardo Salles, as well as former Deputy Deltan Dallagnol, will now be tried by the Supreme Court. The decision follows a trial in March, which expanded the competence of the Court to judge crimes committed by authorities in the office. These cases involve accusations of corruption, money laundering and other crimes.

Corporate

GPA (PCAR3)

The Saint German Investment Fund, controlled by investor Nelson Tanure, requested that the GPA calls an extraordinary general meeting to dismiss the current board of directors and elect new members, including executives appointed by the entrepreneur himself.

(With Reuters and Estadão)