The rise from 11.5% in the wholesale dollar -to $ 1,198- It was qualified as a success by the Government, after the commissioning of a new exchange scheme, which included the liberation of the stocks for individuals.
In the brand new flotation regime between bands -What goes from $ 1,000 to $ 1,400-, the dollar price was in the middle.
The Government’s idea is that The price of the currency drops as much as possibleto the floor of the exchange band. This was transmitted to economic team officials to economic consultants and stock agents with whom they maintained contacts in the last hours.
The impact of the new exchange scheme on prices
The exchange rate rise already had a first impact on some prices of the basic food basket.
Some of the leading companies in the oil production They announced yesterday their customers increases between 8% and 9%. In the case of the Bunge oil company, it was the second price list so far in April.
For today new adjustments are expected in some Sensitive dollar -sensitive items. There will be increases in products made based on wheat: from flours to noodles and bakeries. This was announced by different leading companies in the sector, which were defining those increases in late yesterday.
There was also reaction in Product -line companies of cleaning and hygienewhich warned the suspension of shipments until the exchange panorama is clarified.
In view of this incipient – but automatic – reaction in products of the basic basket, Javier Milei intends that the price of the dollar goes to the band of the band.
End of stock: the dollars and the government’s fight with the field
The government believes that Low of the dollar It could occur in the coming weeks, once the Thick harvest settlement.
That intention was exposed yesterday, in the radio statements of Javier Milei. “Notify the field that if they have to liquidate, to do it now because in July the withholdings return.”
The presidential announcement caused a notorious discomfort among the cameras that represent agricultural producers.
Until June 30, the export rights of the main crops, were 26% for soybeans (bean) against the previous 33%; and its derivatives dropped from 31 to 24.5%. In turn, the rights for wheat export were 9.5 (versus 12% prior).
The government’s decision to restore the levels of retentions is given in a context where the IMF demanded a greater fiscal adjustment amid the turbulence in international markets after the commercial war between the United States and the rest of the world, especially against China.
The IMF wants more dollars in the reserve
There is another issue in Milei’s decision, which should not be lost sight of: the Government’s trouble to achieve a Good currency offer in the markethelp crush the price of the green ticket.
“The foundations (of the economic program) are designed so that the dollar, sooner or later, goes to look for the band of the band“Federico Furiase, director of the Central Bank, explained.
That intention, anyway, is collided with an express request made by the IMF staff, and was raised in the “Staff Report” known on the weekend.
The fund required economics that Central Bank reserves must grow substantially. How much? At least, the BCRA must buy some US $ 6,500 million From here to the next 60 days. At that time it will be the first review of the program by the Monetary Fund.
The objective agreed with the agency is that net reserves must reach -U $ S500 million (negative). The current level was not informed by the IMF or by the government.
There are different calculations. The most optimistic is that of economist Fernando Marull, who estimated the negative reserves at US $ 7,000 million. For Marina Dal Poggetto, they are below: at -u $ s11,000 million.
The point is that The Government is forced to buy such a volume of currenciesthen it is difficult for the exchange rate to go to the band’s floor, as Milei intends.
And, then, if the price fluctuates about half of the band ($ 1,200) approximately, inflation overheating would be inexorable.
The role of inflation to contain the dollar
March inflation, of 3.7%, worsens the perspective of inflation for the coming weeks. What does it mean? That the Inflationary acceleration You can get attractive to the band’s roof.
An IPC that is kept above 3% In the next two months – something totally possible in the current context – will leave, again, the less competitive real exchange rate: it is not necessary to forget that the evolution of the band above – now at $ 1,400 – runs with a monthly rise of just 1%.
For that reason, the government needs Inflation find your roof as soon as possible. And that will depend on what happens with the price of the “market” dollar starting now.
