The Vice President Kamala Harris has led during September in the general average of the surveys with two points of advantage over the former US president Donald Trump. Just like Hillary Clinton in September 2016. The Democrat lost resoundingly in those presidential elections, despite winning the popular vote, for not taking into account the Electoral College system. Can what happened in 2016 be repeated? Yeahand for the same reasons: Trump can win the presidential elections by winning the swing states (undecided states)thanks to the Electoral College system, although it loses in number and percentage of votes as in 2016. If the presidential elections were held this Tuesday, Trump would win the White House with 281 electoral votes. Harris would be left with 257. This year the key is Pennsylvania, where Harris does not convince working-middle class voters. He has been unable to present them with a concrete economic plan.
The Electoral College system states that each candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the White House. It divides each state into a certain number of electoral votes, depending, among other factors, on its population. Rewards the winner of each state, who takes all the votes in that state according to the rule of the winner takes all (winner takes all). For this reason, Trump is running a campaign this year focused on swing states, which add up to 94 electoral votes, as it did in 2016. It has a message based on economy, immigration and security, which is what matters to middle class voters in these states. Meanwhile, Harris is unable to present concrete proposals. This has caused Trump to go ahead in the polls in four of these states and in the general average of the polls in all seven. It has an advantage in Arizona (11 electoral votes), North Carolina (16 electoral votes)Georgia (16) and Pennsylvania (19). Harris in Nevada (6), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10). On the other hand, the Democrats do not have it all with them in the last two states mentioned. Trump already won it in 2016 and can win it again on November 5, election day, despite the polls.
Electoral College System
As previously indicated, Trump or Kamala Harris need 270 of the 538 electoral votes into which the electoral map is divided to win the White House. Each state is divided into a certain number of electoral votes. This figure is obtained from the sum of two fixed electoral votes (the two senators from each state in the Upper House) and a number of electoral votes proportional to the population of each state (equal to the number of electoral districts of each state represented in the Lower House). Three electoral votes must be added from the capital of Washingtonwhich does not have representation in the House of Representatives, established by the 23rd Amendment.
The winner of each state is decided by the system the winner takes all (it takes all the votes from each state). Therefore, undecided states become important such as Arizona (11 electoral votes), Nevada (six electoral votes), North Carolina (12), Georgia (16), Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10). Trump has 219 electoral votes securedwhich come from the sum of the traditionally republican states. While, Kamala Harris has 215 of the Democrats. Instead, Trump has broken the Blue Wall (Democratic fiefdom states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin). He has won Pennsylvania, according to polls published this Tuesday. He is ahead in the polls in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Therefore, he would once again dye the map red as he did in 2016 and win the White House with 281 electoral votes.
Trump-Harris vote percentage
According to the general average of the polls, Donald Trump would achieve the 47.3%. Kamala Harris would be done with 49.1%. A margin very similar to that of 2016 when Trump won the elections despite losing in percentage of votes.
Trump-Harris electoral votes
If each candidate is given the states in which they lead the polls, Donald Trump would get 281 electoral votes. Kamala Harris would get 257.
Information collected from general polls dated October 1, 2024 from Morning Consult, Rasmussen Reports, Quinnipiac, CNN and swing state polls.
Trump-Clinton popular vote
trump won 62,984,828 votes. Hillary Clinton got 65,853,514 votes.
Trump-Clinton vote percentage
donald trump achieved the 46.1%. Hillary Clinton would be done with 48.2%.
Trump-Clinton electoral vote
The electoral vote is the important onedue to the system the winner takes all (the winner of each state takes all of that state’s electoral votes). It takes 270 to get to the White House.
donald trump won the elections with 304 electoral votes. Hillary Clinton lost the election by getting 227.
Why did Clinton lose?
The general opinion is that Hillary Clinton fell short in the states of the Rust Belt (Rust Belt, in manufacturing states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota). The reality is that Hillary Clinton lost Pennsylvania because Donald Trump managed to mobilize working middle class voters in rural areas and small towns, who voted for him en masse.
Clinton followed the usual Democratic formula to win in Pennsylvania: obtain large margins on cities of philadelphia and Pittsburgh and prevail by a narrower margin in the suburban counties around Philadelphia. Instead, that strategy has become outdated, due to Trump’s ability to mobilize the working middle class.
