The ATS rates closed Friday on the rise, especially among short contracts, after data on the Brazilian labor market suggest that the economy is still accelerated, which is bad news for inflation control.
Among the long contracts the rates ended with lighter highs, due to the counterweight brought by the strong drop in the yields of the treasuries abroad.
In the late afternoon, the DI (interfiniation deposit rate) rate for January 2026-one of the most liquid in the short term-was 15.11%, compared to 15.03%of the previous session, while the rate for January 2027 marked 15.05%, up 15-base points compared to 14.904%.
Among the longer contracts, the rate for January 2031 was 14.89%, compared to 14.837%of the previous adjustment, and the contract for January 2033 had a rate of 14.88%, compared to 14.844%.
From an early age operations in Brazil occurred amid the expectation that the General Registration of Employees and Unemployed (CAGED) would point to the generation of more than 400,000 new jobs with a formal contract in February. The number that circulated from the tables was much more robust than the projections of the economists, which boosted future rates throughout the term curve.
Released at 2:30 pm by the Ministry of Labor and Employment (MTE), the Caged did not disappoint, showing the opening of 431,995 formal vacancies in February, well above the expectation of economists appointed in research at Reuters, of net creation of 250,000 vacancies.
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Although the strong numbers of Caged suggested difficulties for the Central Bank to control inflation – which would reflect on greater opening in the curve – after the data the future rates lost strength and gave in to some vertices.
“The staff has been adjusting a position considering a strong caged since yesterday,” said Matheus Spiess, an analyst at Empiricus Research during the afternoon of Friday. “After they left, they burned awards.”
Operator of a large investment bank pointed out that even before Caged was already “price” the generation of over 400,000 posts. When the numbers came out, part of the market “put in its pocket.”
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The DI rate for January 2027, for example, was at 15.10% (+20 base points compared to the eve adjustment) at 2:30 pm-just when the numbers left-but at 3:06 pm had already fallen at a minimum of 14.96% (+6 adjustment base points).
After that, future rates still recovered a little of strength amid the assessment that the labor market in fact suggests the need for a higher Selic, longer, to control inflation. Currently Selic is 14.25% per year.
In the morning, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) had also presented strong data. The unemployment rate in the country rose at 6.8% in the quarter ending in February, compared to 6.1% in the immediately previous quarter, but the number of workers with a portfolio signed in the private sector hit the record of 39.560 million.
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The average workers’ yield also hit the record of the series started in 2012, at R $ 3,378, which represents 1.3% in the quarter.
“On the one hand, the BC was already wanting to look at the slowdown (from the economy), to stop the discharge of interest, but on the other hand there is the government preventing the economy from slowing down,” said Spies, pointing out that the Lula government has been acting to maintain the growth of the economy.
One of the government’s recent initiatives was the launch of the payroll loan stimulation program for the private worker, which promises to move billions of reais.
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“The government has been trying to accelerate the economy with the hand -pulled hand brake,” summarized Spies.
In this context, market bets on the future of Selic, today at 14.25%, are divided.
On Thursday-therefore, before employment data-B3’s Copom Options market was priced 70.00% probability of 50 Selic points high in May (compared to 60.50% the day before) and 18.00% of chances of elevation of 75 base points (24.50% the day before), compared to only 5.00% high-base probability (6.00% on the day before).
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Abroad, Treasuries income had strong late afternoon after inflation data in the US and the expectation before the announcement next week of the new import tariffs from Donald Trump’s government.
At 4:56 pm Treasury yield of ten years-global referencing for investment decisions-11 base points fell to 4.261%.
