In view of the customs dispute triggered by the USA, the World trade organization (WTO) with a decline in world trade volume. According to its latest view, the WTO assumes that this will decrease by at least 0.2 percent in 2025.
The WTO forecast already takes into account the suspension of the special tariffs for many countries announced by US President Donald Trump. Should these so -called reciprocal Tariff However, world trade is likely to decrease even more: up to 1.5 percent.
Without the latest developments in the customs dispute, around three percentage points would have been possible and thus growth. According to WTO, a moderate relaxation is only to be expected for 2026: then an increase of 2.5 percent is possible.
Agency of up to 77 percent in Chinese exports to the USA
According to WTO, the US tariffs have the biggest effects on the USA and Canada. Apart from the trading volume, economic output will also become weaker there. This year, the WTO only expects 0.4 instead of 2 percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in North America.
Exports in North America are likely to decrease by 12.6 percent this year, imports by 9.6 percent, according to the WTO forecast. Before the customs announcements, the organization plus 2.2 percent of exports and plus 2.8 percent in imports. According to WTO, the Chinese exports to the USA decrease by 77 percent in the current scenario.
For Europe, the consequences are significantly less dramatic: plus one percent exports (instead of previously expected 1.4 percent) and 1.9 percent imports instead of 2.1 percent. In GDP, WTO for Europe sees 1.2 instead of 1.4 percent growth in the current year.
Trump sees China as the main opponent
In the past few weeks, US President Trump has raised high tariffs to imports of other countries, but sometimes overridden these in the face of violent course burglaries on the stock exchanges. The US President is particularly hard against China, which he sees as the main opponent in trade policy. The US tariffs on Chinese imports now add up to 145 percent. The People’s Republic reacted with counter-tariffs to US imports of 125 percent.
