(CNN) – Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by a wide margin among likely black voters, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRSbut it is still below the margins of Joe Biden’s victory in 2020 with this group. However, the poll suggests that Black voters who currently support Trump or third-party candidates are not as decided about their options as likely Black voters who support the vice president.
The most recent CNN poll found Harris leading Trump by 63 points among likely black voters, 79% to 16%. That’s a considerable improvement over Biden’s 46-point lead over trump among registered voters in CNN’s June poll, which was the last with the president as a Democratic candidate. But that lead is below the Biden-Harris campaign’s 75-point margin among Black voters, according to 2020 exit polls.
Since Harris entered the race, enthusiasm among black voters for the election appears to have grown. In the latest poll, 79% of registered black voters say they will definitely vote in this election, up from 68% in the June poll. For voters overall, the figure remained at 82% in the latest survey, similar to the June results. Black voters are currently as likely as other groups to consider participating in elections extremely important (both at 63%), while in June, registered Black voters were less inclined to think so (57% vs. 66% overall).
Harris’ improvement over Biden’s margins from earlier this year comes as polling signals broad support for her from the 40% of black likely voters who see Biden’s presidency as a failure: Harris leads Trump by 65% to 31% among these voters.
The poll suggests that Trump’s improvements among Black voters relative to 2020 are largely due to Black voters under 60. Harris has an 87-point lead among Black voters ages 60 and older, a nearly identical margin to the 85-point margin Biden achieved in 2020, according to exit polls for that same group. However, among black voters under 60, Harris’ lead narrows to 55 points, while Biden won this group by 71 points in 2020. Trump, for his part, performs best among younger black voters 40 years old, with 22% support.
Still, the CNN poll suggests Harris has the potential to improve her margins. Her supporters are largely made up and unlikely to change their minds in the presidential race: 92% of likely black voters who support Harris say they already have their minds made up. But among those who back other candidates, a third say they can still change their minds.
Harris is also generally viewed more favorably among registered black voters compared to already registered voters overall, even after accounting for the overwhelming Democratic leaning of black voters. Nearly 8 in 10 of these voters view Harris favorably, and black Democrats have slightly more positive views of Harris than other members of the party, while black voters outside the Democratic Party have much more positive views of her overall. comparison with independents or Republicans of other races.
Black voters who do not consider themselves Democrats are more likely than non-Democrats of other racial backgrounds to say that Harris has improved their view of the Democratic Party, that they would be proud or excited if she won the election. The opinions of this group are generally similar to those of the majority, with black Democratic voters holding similar or slightly more positive opinions than others in their party. Among non-Democratic voters, black voters consider Harris the candidate who best aligns with their vision of a president compared to other voters, highlighting attributes such as temperament, the ability to understand the problems of people like themselves, and the skills of leadership.
This also applies to opinions about Trump. Non-Democratic black voters are more likely to view his presidency as a failure than other voters who share his partisan perspective and are less likely to trust Trump more than Harris on handling each of the issues assessed in the survey, including the economy and immigration.
Although likely black voters largely focus on the same issues as the general electorate, the CNN poll reveals some differences among Democrats. Black voters are just as likely as other groups to consider the economy their top concern (41%). However, likely black voters who consider themselves Democrats are twice as likely as Democrats overall to list the economy as their top concern (42% vs. 19%). Additionally, these voters are less likely than their Democratic counterparts to identify protecting democracy or reproductive rights as their top priorities.
When asked about the most relevant economic issue, black voters of all political stripes agree with the general electorate in pointing to inflation as their top priority. However, likely black voters are more likely than other groups to point to jobs and wages as their top economic concern, and less likely to cite federal spending.
Nearly 9 in 10 Black registered voters believe the political system in the United States needs a significant overhaul or major reform, and a large majority (85%) think the federal government does not do enough for Black Americans. About half of these voters (47%) believe the federal government favors white Americans too much and does too little for black Americans. However, registered black voters are more likely than the general electorate to be satisfied with the influence that people like them have on the political process (52%, compared to 38% overall).
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS online and by telephone from September 19 to 22, 2024, among 2,074 registered voters nationwide selected from a probability-based panel. Likely voters include all voters registered in the survey weighted by their predicted probability of voting in this year’s election. The survey included an oversampling of registered black voters to reach a total of 579; this group has been weighted to its appropriate size within the population for all survey results. Results for the full sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points; it is the same among likely voters and higher for subgroups. The results among black registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 7.8 percentage points; among likely black voters, it is roughly 7.7 percentage points.
CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta and Ariel Edwards-Levy contributed to this report.
