The AfD has in the ARDGermany trend gained in approval and achieved a maximum of 24 percent in the survey. Within four weeks, the party improved by three percentage points and is only in second place behind the Union. Their previous maximum value in the ARDGermany trend recorded the AfD in October 2023 with 23 percent. In the Bundestag election, she won 20.8 percent.
AfD wins, Union loses
CDU and CSU lose three points in the ARD survey. At 26 percent, the Union continues to be in first place. The SPD unchanged in third place behind the AfD, behind it, the Greens are 11 percent (minus one).
The left gain a point and come to ten percent. At four percent each, the BSW (minus one) and the FDP (plus one) would continue to fail at the five percent hurdle if next Sunday Bundestag election were. All other parties would come together to five percent.
Merz loses satisfaction
Not only the party of the likely future Chancellor Friedrich Merz clearly lost in the survey, the CDU politician also did worse in personal values. Only 25 percent of the respondents are satisfied with his work or even very satisfied. That is five points less than four weeks ago. 70 percent are dissatisfied with him or very dissatisfied.
SPD boss Lars Klingbeil, on the other hand, was awarded more satisfaction in the survey. It comes to an approval value of 35 percent. This is an increase of seven percentage points.
About the uncertainties of surveys
Election surveys are only snapshots of the political mood. Since all voters are never asked, but only a sample, the surveys are also subject to statistical fluctuations. In order to convey the most representative opinion as possible, combined The election trend of time online The values of all available surveys for the Bundestag election.
For the election surveys, opinion research institutes regularly ask a four -digit number of eligible voters. Most institutes call both landline and mobile phone numbers, mostly online surveys are also used. Since not all population groups can be reached equally well for the surveys, the values are then weighted according to socio -demographic characteristics such as age and gender. This creates so -called representative samples, which in its composition should represent society as well as possible. The exact methodology of the institutes is usually not transparent for the public.
Poll values are always snapshots. More than a rough tendency for an opinion cannot be derived from this. Even if the figures are close to reality at the time of publication at the time of publication, it is still open whether the voters surveyed at the time actually actually submit their vote or change their mind at short notice.
With a view to the coalition negotiations, a clear majority of respondents (79 percent) expect the alliance between the Union and SPDonly 14 percent don’t believe that. At the same time, 20 percent of very large and 53 percent great concern that the parties do not find any common answer to urgent political questions; 19 percent of the respondents are not worried about this and 4 percent at all.
The Institute Infratest Dimap surveyed 1,334 eligible voters online and by phone from Monday to Wednesday of this week. The fault tolerance is specified with two to three percentage points.
