In the coming decades, Spain will experience a reduction in average precipitationas well as an increase in temperatures and the frequency of heat waves. To the effects of climate change Added to this are those of depopulation in some areas and the globalization of agricultural trade, which affects the country as a whole, although with special impact in certain regions. Specifically, 2,858 Spanish municipalities present, in comparative terms, greater vulnerability to these effectsaccording to the study Beyond ’emptied Spain’: climate change, depopulation and globalization in rural areas of the Social Observatory of the ”la Caixa” Foundation.
The researchers Sergio Villamayor-TomasDaniel Gaitán Cremaschi, Beatriz Pierri-Daunt and Leticia Santos de Lima, from the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology of the Autonomous University of Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), and Esteve Corbera, from ICTA-UAB and the Catalan Institute of Research i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), have developed a socio-environmental index of vulnerability to climate change, depopulation and agricultural globalization using data from 27 social and environmental variables which has allowed them to classify the more than 8,000 Spanish municipalities into one of the following four territorial clusters: emptied Spain and economically marginalized; the Spain that resists economically, but dries up; eroded Spain, and exporting Spain.
The “four Spains”
The first of these four groups is what the authors have called the Spain emptied and economically marginalizedwhich is the most vulnerable group and covers 2,858 municipalities, located mainly in the center of northern Spain (especially the regions of Castilla y León, and part of Aragon), which represent 21% of the national territory.
This group includes the areas with the greatest decrease in the natural growth rate and where the highest proportion of older people per young person is concentrated. It also brings together the highest proportion of small population centers (less than 500 inhabitants). From an economic point of view, they are the territories most affected by the decrease in prices paid to agricultural producers. Likewise, they are areas in which the lowest presence of registered companies is concentrated and have poor social and road infrastructure.
The second group, defined in the study as that of the Spain that resists economically, but dries upincludes 1,112 municipalities distributed especially in the mountain ranges and in the perimeter of the first group, and constitutes 13% of the national territory. This territorial cluster also presents a high proportion of small population centers, municipalities affected by the decrease in natural population growth and areas with poor road infrastructure. In addition, it registers a greater decrease in average annual rainfall. Despite everything, It has the highest proportion of protected areas and the highest number of registered companies.
The third is called by the authors the eroded Spain and is made up of 3,198 municipalities spread throughout the Spanish territory which represent 54% of the total. These are municipalities located mainly in the regions of Galicia and Asturias, as well as in the center and south of the country. According to the measurements of the study, this territorial cluster does not present serious socioeconomic problemsbut it is the group most affected by forest fires and soil erosion.
The fourth and last grouping is what the authors classify as exporting Spain, made up of 595 municipalities (5% of the Spanish territory), mostly located in very specific enclaves close to coastal areas and large cities. It is the least vulnerable group, according to the parameters analyzed. Even so, the authors point out that its special weakness is related to exposure to the globalization of agricultural tradegiven that it depends to a greater extent on exports. The authors define the concept of globalization of agricultural trade as the consolidation of a food production and consumption system dominated by multinational companies, global markets and prices, and based on the intensive and highly mechanized production of export products, and in the search for short-term profitability, among other characteristics.
In this last group, the researchers also highlight two peculiarities: it is the one that depends most on irrigated agriculture and has the lowest proportion of protected areas.
«The municipalities of Spain can be ordered according to whether they are more or less vulnerable to climate change, depopulation and globalization. The degree to which they are affected by specific aspects of these three threats is what has allowed us to classify them in the four Spains,” highlighted Sergio Villamayor-Tomas, researcher at the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA-UAB) and co-author of the study.
Rural development policies
The authors of the study Beyond ’emptied Spain’: climate change, depopulation and globalization in rural areasfrom the Social Observatory of the ”la Caixa” Foundation, consider that adaptation to climate change, mitigation of depopulation and defense of agricultural income must be accompanied by agricultural policies and more integrated rural development from a socio-environmental point of view.
«After this analysis, there are processes that are worth continuing to study, such as the relationship between drought and heat waves, rural abandonment, the disappearance of family farms, the concentration of land in large companies, agricultural intensification and desertification,” highlighted ViIlamayor-Tomas. And he added: «Our analysis warns about the need to review CAP aid (Common Agricultural Policy) from the point of view of its capacity to address environmental and social problems in an integrated manner. The program to incorporate young farmers, for example, contributes to generational change and therefore to mitigate depopulationbut it also promotes a large-scale intensive and mechanized agricultural exploitation model, of dubious adaptive capacity. in the face of climate change and the volatility of agricultural markets».
